QUESTION: Do you suppose the blockade might be efficient in bringing Iran to break down? You additionally mentioned that Iran is successful. May you clarify that?
Will
ANSWER: No matter the way you would possibly really feel in regards to the Iran conflict, as I beforehand said, after I was known as in to offer me a briefing on Russia, I used to be instructed that we’d NOT be at conflict with Russia – it will be with China. As they are saying, you solely know who your pals are in occasions of bother. This conflict has revealed that our supposed allies are actually enemies ready for the chance to stab this upstart colony known as America within the again. In actuality, they had been at all times enemies, jealous that they misplaced their energy to this fledgling upstart. America has solely been feared – not admired.
Everybody has an opinion. That doesn’t make one proper and one other mistaken. Opinion requires expertise – not second-guessing. To suppose for one minute that this blockade will drive Iran to break down and yield to every little thing demanded by the Trump administration is fairly naive. It’s a determined effort on the Trump Administration as a result of they know that they can’t bomb Iran to finish the Persian Civilization. What no one appears to deal with is the one main level of Iran – a US assure that Iran will NOT be attacked once more by the rogue Netanyahu. That’s one thing Trump can not ship for Netanyahu, who can be up for election, and he, too, wants a victory. As talked about, there have been open discussions in Israel about nuking the granite tunnels the Iranians have dug as a result of no bunker-buster bomb can presumably destroy their nuclear program.
Turkish Straits
Then there may be what’s being introduced as absurd, that Iran desires a toll to move by means of the Strait of Hormuz. Each different seaway that may be a chokepoint, ships should pay a toll from the artifical Panama Canal and the Suez Canal, and between Canada & USA within the Saint Lawrence Seaway. The Turkish Straits are a singular authorized exception to the precept of free passage by means of pure waterways. Comprising the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, they type a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Beneath the 1936 Montreux Conference, Türkiye has the authority to manage transits and accumulate charges, that are legally outlined as “navigation service prices” fairly than tolls on the passage itself. Iran can do the identical and never name it a “toll” however “navigation service prices.”
Then an embargo on Iran is an embargo on China, impacting their nationwide safety. China should know what I used to be instructed in that briefing, which suggests that is additionally an oblique confrontation with China. This conflict has critically depleted the US functionality to wage conflict because it depends on high-tech. Our Navy has solely about 33% of the variety of ships the President had again in 1970. For many years, cash was shifted from navy to social spending, and the US grew to become more and more subtle in its weapons to offset the decline within the uncooked dimension of the drive.
We’ve got entered a brand new world of warfare that the overwhelming majority are nonetheless blind to. This can be a new technique that may defeat the US and Israel rather more simply than anybody realizes. We don’t even see this coming due to the one-sided reporting of the Western Press that consistently prints the Neocon propaganda.
Let’s put it this fashion. You and I’m going to conflict in opposition to one another. You wish to fake you’re the richest and strongest. So, you’ve got fancy silver bullets that value you $100 every. I’ve low-cost copper bullets that value me $1 every. I can produce 100 bullets to your one. Who do you suppose will win in a long-drawn-out conflict?
US air-defense inventories have been considerably drawn down by defending Israel and its personal forces from Iranian assaults, however NOT to the purpose of useful depletion. The U.S. nonetheless retains sizable reserves, however the tempo of use has uncovered a vital hole in its capacity to replenish shares rapidly in a serious battle.
Terminal Excessive Altitude Space Protection (THAAD)
U.S. forces fired 100 to 150 interceptors (approx. 25% of its stock) throughout a 12-day conflict in June 2025 to defend Israel in opposition to Iranian ballistic missiles. This was essentially the most important operational use of the system to this point. Manufacturing and replenishment have been a serious concern, with solely 11 new interceptors produced in 2024, 12 anticipated in 2025, and a plan for 37 in 2026. To deal with the scarcity, the Pentagon licensed an additional $2 billion to Lockheed Martin to replenish shares.
Commonplace Missile (SM) Household (SM-2, SM-3, SM-6)
The Navy’s Commonplace Missiles have been closely expended. From October 2023 to December 31, 2024, the Navy expended an estimated 168 SM-2s, 17 SM-3s, and 112 SM-6s within the Crimson Sea. Throughout the 12-day 2025 conflict, the Navy elevated its destroyer presence within the area from two to 5 to assist Israel, additional drawing on these shares. The fleet has been expending these missiles sooner than they are often changed, with senior Navy officers describing the speed as “alarming”.
Patriot Missiles
Depletion: Whereas particular depletion figures for the Patriot system will not be detailed within the search outcomes, it’s understood that the system has confronted important demand. The U.S. produces roughly 600 to 650 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles yearly, however analysts warn that in a high-intensity conflict, even a 12 months’s manufacturing could possibly be consumed inside weeks.
The U.S. nonetheless has important missile shares for now, however the strategic threat is that the US has moved to high-tech fairly than regular weapons, and that has lowered the provision, elevated the fee, and lowered the flexibility to mass-produce such weapons to replenish throughout a conflict, as we’re witnessing with Iran. Combating on a number of fronts was a central and decisive issue within the navy defeats of each Napoleon and Hitler. Whereas not the one causes, the immense pressure of splitting their forces made them susceptible to the very factor they tried to keep away from: a conflict of attrition fought in opposition to highly effective coalitions. Each in the end collapsed beneath the stress of coordinated enemies they may not overwhelm with pace and decisive victories. I’ve warned that the best way to strategically defeat even the US is for a joint coalition of China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Waging a conflict of attrition is a crippling technique.
The navy has seven THAAD techniques and eight Patriot battalions, every with substantial interceptors. Nevertheless, the depletion of THAAD has uncovered severe vulnerabilities. The vital concern is the Replenishment Price. The present U.S. manufacturing capability is much too gradual for a high-end battle. It might take years to interchange interceptors used in simply two weeks of combating!
Then we’ve the Strategic Danger. The drawdown has hollowed out U.S. protection capability in opposition to China. On condition that we’re already struggling to cope with threats from Iran, how do we expect we’re going to do in opposition to China?” The U.S. Sixth Fleet’s native stock of SM-3 interceptors was almost depleted after serving to defend Israel from the October 1 Iranian missile strike.
We’ve got strategically incurred the unsustainable value of attempting to battle a conflict. The financial burden is immense, to place this mildly, regardless of the pro-war contingent and the analysts preaching that Iran has misplaced. THAAD interceptors value roughly $12.7 million every, whereas SM-3s vary from $9 million to $12 million. By mid-April 2024, the Navy had already spent near $1 billion on munitions defending in opposition to Houthi assaults
Briefly, the U.S. missile stock might not but be exhausted, however the current tempo of operations has revealed a harmful hole between peacetime manufacturing charges and wartime calls for.
The upper the Tech, the better the fee, and the less bullets you must hearth. Figuring out this isn’t the Achilles Heel of contemporary warfare. The Iranian assaults in 2025 concerned ways particularly designed to drive Israel to expend its costly air protection arsenal, leveraging an financial conflict of attrition. Nevertheless, the 2025 conflict was a “two-way bleed“—whereas Israel was pressured to fireside pricey interceptors, Iran’s personal missile and launch infrastructure was additionally devastated. Iran’s method relied on overwhelming Israel’s defenses by means of saturation and exploiting an enormous value asymmetry.
Iran cleverly adopted a saturation and the Financial Battle of Attrition. Iran’s technique was a direct response to the layered Israeli air protection community, which incorporates the Iron Dome (rockets), David’s Sling (short-to-medium vary missiles and drones), and the Arrow system (long-range ballistic missiles). Iran employed two particular ways. First, by launching mass waves of threats from a number of instructions (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen), Iran aimed to overwhelm Israel’s multi-layered defenses with extra targets than they may deal with directly. The core of this tactic was financial warfare. Every interception by a classy Israeli system prices tens or tons of of occasions greater than a budget drone it destroyed.
The Iranian Shahed Drone value was $20,000 – $50,000 A really low-tech, one-way assault drone.
The Israeli David’s Sling value $1,000,000 per launch Interceptor for short-to-medium vary threats.
Israeli Arrow 3 System $3,500,000 – $4,000,000 per interception. Exo-atmospheric interceptor for long-range ballistic missiles.
Was the Technique Profitable? The tactic was partially profitable. It positioned immense strategic stress on Israel however didn’t obtain whole victory in 2025. The monetary burden on Israel was staggering. For instance, through the June 2025 “12-Day Battle,” the mixed value of U.S. and Israeli defensive operations was between $1.48 billion and $1.58 billion. A senior Israeli official estimated a single evening’s protection might value $1-1.3 billion. Israeli intelligence warned that if assaults continued at their peak charge, Israel’s protection reserves would possibly solely final 10 to 12 days.
Iran’s value is cheaper, however the sheer quantity of assaults nonetheless prices Iran considerably, with estimates of its missile and drone expenditures starting from $1.1 billion to $6.6 billion through the 12-day conflict. The U.S. and Israeli DEPLETION through the battle additionally put a serious dent within the U.S. stock, which was already careworn from supporting Ukraine. The U.S. used up an estimated 14% of its world stockpile of THAAD missile interceptors in simply 12 days, and at present manufacturing charges, it will take three to eight years to replenish them!
In essence, the 2025 battle confirmed that whereas Iran’s economic-attrition technique was a potent NEW type of warfare, it was not a silver bullet. It pressured Israel to expend vital assets at an alarming charge, however the conflict’s kinetic part ended with Iran’s launch infrastructure in ruins, highlighting the intense dangers of such a direct confrontation for either side.
Iran has made a decisive and public shift in direction of a method of financial warfare and attrition. The 2025 conflict is now seen as a blueprint that pressured a tough pivot of their method, shifting away from looking for a decisive navy victory to a long-term technique designed to bankrupt their enemies. Probably the most tangible proof of this shift is the staggering 10-fold improve in manufacturing of assault drones in simply the seven months after the conflict. This industrial surge is the engine of their financial warfare, designed to overwhelm air defenses by means of sheer, low-cost numbers.
Iran possessed an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 Shahed drones at the beginning of this 2026 conflict, with a month-to-month manufacturing capability of as much as 500 for sustained stress, or over 12,000 throughout wartime peaks. This technique exploits the huge value hole, the place a $35,000 drone can drive using a $4 million Patriot missile, creating an financial calculus that’s “100 occasions” in Iran’s favor. By forcing two interceptors per goal, they speed up the depletion of American and Israeli stockpiles.
I’ve been warning in regards to the sheer stupidity of the Neocons and their vanity that Having the Largest Army routinely means you win. As a result of we Can’t win a conflict of attrition, this implies the one weapon they may have the ability to deploy once they run out of bullets is nuclear.
