QUESTION: Marty, I’ve been reviewing all of the studies you’ve distributed on the WECs. I want Trump had attended—I recall he was within the subsequent room one yr. Not solely have your battle cycles been astonishing, however you additionally forecast this collapse in confidence in governments that will ship long-term charges up. I keep in mind again in 2022, you stated 5.5% on the 30-year can be the breakout. I’ve reread your 2022 Liquidity Disaster report. Anybody who dares to query your forecasting is just a troll for the Neocons.
Will you could have any surprises at this yr’s WEC? We have now a lot on the desk—battle, rates of interest, sovereign defaults, inventory markets, gold, to not point out the election craziness.
You moved to Florida again in 2016 and stated your fashions had been displaying a long-term decline for the NY space, even predicting that Wall Road would depart. All of these issues sounded nuts again then—and right here we’re right this moment.
JB
ANSWER: Nicely, we’ve got all the things from Sovereign Debt Disaster that has reached $400 trillion whereas everybody appears solely on the USA at $40 trillion, the actual risk of nuclear battle, rates of interest that the central banks don’t have any management over and the morons who maintain speaking about inflation {that a} central financial institution elevating charges is not going to make oil costs decline in the midst of a Value-Push-Inflation. I warned that politics would turn out to be dramatic and confirmed the pc warned that the Democratic Occasion might cut up. Now even James Carville says it ought to cut up.
Apart from the 72 Yr Revolution Cycle of Russia beginning in 1917 that coincided with the ECM 1989.95, and even the actual property crash of 2007 to the day when the ground merchants had been calling it Armstrong’s Revenge, The pc was right on the Trump election and forecast the rise in civil unrest from 2020, the commodity growth, the rise in authoritarianism from 2020 into 2032, many overlook the 2011 forecast for the rise in Marxism within the West some name Progressivism.
The proof strongly signifies that progressivism skilled a major resurgence in 2011, pushed by a wave of grassroots activism in response to financial inequality and conservative coverage pushes. This was the prelude to our forecast that the Democratic Occasion would finally cut up. Certainly, a number of key actions and occasions came about in 2011.
The Occupy Wall Road Motion was a giant one. I keep in mind strolling out of the workplace in Philadelphia again then and the protesters screaming at me calling me a “company liberal” the place they had been simply throwing phrases round that had no which means. Starting in September 2011, this motion introduced the nationwide dialog round financial inequality—popularized by the slogan “We’re the 99%”—to the forefront of American politics. It energized the progressive left and drew consideration from labor unions and even some Democratic lawmakers.
The Wisconsin Capitol Protests additionally came about in 2011 earlier within the yr. That was additionally large protests that erupted in Wisconsin towards Governor Scott Walker’s invoice to curtail collective bargaining rights for public staff. The state, a historic birthplace of the progressive motion, noticed tens of hundreds of protesters, reinvigorating labor and progressive activism.
By November 2011, progressives celebrated a number of key electoral wins. Voters in Ohio decisively repealed an anti-union legislation, and in Mississippi, they rejected a “personhood” modification that will have severely restricted abortion rights. These had been seen as direct rebukes to conservative agendas.
The actions of 2011 obtained assist from established progressive figures and establishments. The Congressional Progressive Caucus voiced solidarity with the Occupy protesters, and labor unions actively partnered with the motion. Publications like The Nation additionally highlighted the yr’s activism as a major second for progressivism.
The rise of this progressive motion in 2011 was proper on track. I’ve stated many occasions that the final three wave of a 51.6-year cycle are at all times essentially the most chaotic. We must assessment the place to stay for certain. We see the Nice Migration within the USA from Blue States which have misplaced their thoughts like NYC and the flight to the crimson states like Tea=xas and Florida.
Texas has constructed a brand new inventory change that’s actively competing for enterprise from New York. The Texas Inventory Trade (TXSE), primarily based in Dallas, formally launched full buying and selling on July 31, 2026, and it’s already making strikes to problem the long-standing dominance of the NYSE and Nasdaq. Philadelphia holds the title of the primary inventory change in america, with its origins tracing again to 1746 and its formal institution in 1790. The New York Inventory Trade traces its founding to the Buttonwood Settlement in 1792, with its formal group as a board occurring in 1817. The brand new TXSE will finally dwarf NYC they usually inevitably will search to tax inventory transactions and so on.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani has actively thought of and supported new taxes associated to monetary transactions. Whereas his focus has been on high-value actual property reasonably than a common tax on all monetary trades, he has supported proposals that operate as transaction taxes on luxurious property purchases. Nonetheless, there was imposed through the rise of the progressive period that culminated within the Revenue Tax in 1913, taxes on monetary transactions. New York State Inventory Switch Tax was created in 1905. New York State, along side New York Metropolis, enacted a tax on the switch of shares in 1905. This tax was initially a half-penny on inventory trades, and it was collected till 1981, when it was eradicated. It has been a topic of ongoing political debate, with current proposals to reinstate it.
Then there was the Federal Inventory Switch Excise Tax imposed in 1914 to pay for World Warfare I. On the federal degree, a inventory switch excise tax (generally known as a documentary stamp tax) was imposed on the issuance and subsequent transfers of securities. This federal tax was in impact from 1914 to 1966.
We could have a full plate this yr between battle on 4 fronts, sovereign money owed, bond disaster, rising rates of interest which are NOT pushed by inflation, three political elections, the All the pieces Bubble, after which political infighting, impeachments, and obstruction of all the things.
