Beirut, Lebanon – Sitting alongside his Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, on the White Home on Tuesday, United States President Donald Trump repeated a suggestion that Syria might intervene in Lebanon to “do one thing with Hezbollah”.
Regardless of widespread opposition, Trump has a number of instances floated the concept Syria, underneath new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, might militarily intrude within the neighbouring nation, whose authorities has come underneath US and Israeli strain to disarm the Iran-backed group.
“[Al-Sharaa] want to are available in,” Trump claimed. “You understand, they’ve been preventing. He’s been preventing Hezbollah for a very long time. I feel it’d be very efficient. So it’s one thing I take into consideration,” he mentioned.
However on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to downplay the prospect of an intervention.
“The Syrian authorities should not huge followers of Hezbollah, however what we’ve inspired Syria to do is to focus by itself inside challenges that it has in constructing a nation state,” he informed reporters.
Hezbollah was an important ally of Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad earlier than his removing in 2024 by fighters led by al-Sharaa.
In keeping with Bassel Doueik, a political and safety researcher, a army intervention in Lebanon to assist disarm Hezbollah “could be strategically counterproductive” for Syria’s new authorities, which have beforehand dismissed the proposal.
“It might undermine establishing a secure relationship with the Lebanese state and will inadvertently strengthen Hezbollah’s home narrative. Hezbollah would virtually definitely painting any Syrian army motion as overseas aggression, permitting the group to reframe the scenario as a resistance defending Lebanese sovereignty. Such a transfer might rally assist from anti-Hezbollah segments of the inhabitants.”
Syrian animosity in direction of Hezbollah
Syrian troops first entered Lebanon underneath Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, in 1976, in the course of the early days of the Lebanese Civil Battle (1975-1990). Syria occupied most of Lebanon (except the south, which was underneath Israeli occupation till 2000) for almost 30 years, solely pulling its troops out after widespread protests in 2005.
When Syrians rose up in opposition to their very own authorities in 2011, al-Assad responded with heavy-handed violence and suppression. After the opposition picked up weapons to struggle again, Hezbollah intervened on behalf of al-Assad.
This left deep resentment amongst many Syrians that is still to at the present time.
Nonetheless, analysts consider {that a} Syrian intervention in Lebanon might incite regional sectarian tensions, danger dragging each nations again into conflict and disrupt Syria’s post-war state-building undertaking.
“A Syrian army return would reopen a deep wound in Lebanon’s political reminiscence and provoke resistance even from communities that strongly oppose Hezbollah, as a result of it could revive the expertise of many years of Syrian management,” Nanar Hawach, Worldwide Disaster Group’s senior analyst on Syria, informed Al Jazeera.
“Regionally, it could forged doubt on Syria’s declare to have damaged with previous patterns of interference, whereas stretching a nonetheless‑fragile transition and risking turning Syria, once more, right into a theatre of a regional battle,” mentioned Hawach.
‘Recipe for catastrophe’
There may be additionally concern that such a army intervention might undermine Syria’s domestic security, because it faces threats from remnants of the previous authorities and teams affiliated with ISIL (ISIS).
Samy Akil, a Syrian safety analyst, argued that regardless of Trump’s push, the broader intelligence and defence neighborhood within the US recognises that the transfer could be a “recipe for catastrophe”.
Syrian troops have been unlikely to enter Lebanese territory in any respect – and within the unlikely occasion they have been to take action, it could be as a part of a regional settlement, he mentioned.
“Stepping into Lebanon is simple, getting out of Lebanon is all the time very troublesome,” added Akil, calling a possible intervention a “short-sighted coverage”.
Stress techniques
Trump’s feedback got here because the Lebanese military on Tuesday started deploying in “pilot zones” as stipulated in a US-brokered framework agreement signed between Lebanon and Israel final month that entails a gradual Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of Lebanese troops to stop Hezbollah from re-establishing a presence within the nation’s south.
Israel and Hezbollah have been preventing since October 2023, with various ranges of depth, however the former has twice escalated the battle – first in September 2024 after which in early March this yr, following the beginning of the US-Israel conflict on Iran.
Hawach argued that Trump could also be pushing the narrative of Syrian intervention in Lebanon as a tactic to sign that the US “has a couple of lever on the Lebanon conflict, and to unsettle Hezbollah, Iran and Israel by placing a distinct form of strain on every of them”.
“It additionally serves a story of getting companions who can do what Israel thus far has not,” Hawach added. “In the meantime, this provides Damascus a chance to seem like the accountable actor by publicly refusing a task that might escalate the battle.”
As a substitute of an on-the-ground intervention, Syria might assist Lebanon in disarming Hezbollah in different methods.
“Essentially the most sensible state of affairs is that it stays inside Syrian territory, not in Lebanon,” Souhaib Jawhar, a non-resident fellow on the Beirut-based Badil Coverage Institute, informed Al Jazeera.
“Strengthening the Syrian military’s presence on the Syrian aspect of the border, tightening management over unlawful crossings, closing or destroying tunnels used for smuggling, together with rising the extent of safety info alternate with the Lebanese military, are all extra sensible and politically acceptable steps.”
Rubio additionally recommended that Syria might act in opposition to Hezbollah with out sending troops on the bottom.
“Hezbollah is an enemy of this new authorities in Syria they usually, in some ways, have sought to hunt to undermine that authorities over time. And among the best issues Syria can do to safe its future is to safe their border with Lebanon, in order that we don’t have weapons and arms coming backwards and forwards throughout that border in an effort to destabilise Syria,” he mentioned.
