Final week, Israel attacked Syrian territory but once more. Israeli forces shelled a hilltop close to Beit Jinn within the western Damascus countryside, whereas troopers raided a village in Quneitra province.
The assaults got here simply days after Israeli fighter jets struck the Abu al-Duhur navy base in northern Syria, inflicting important harm. Israel mentioned the strike was supposed to forestall a potential Turkish navy deployment there, though each Damascus and Ankara disputed these claims. The Israeli assaults have endured regardless of Syrian efforts to de-escalate by means of diplomacy, and criticism from Washington of the Abu al-Duhur strike.
Whereas avoiding confrontation, the federal government of Ahmed al-Sharaa continues to insist that Israel withdraw from Syrian territory it has occupied and that Damascus should stay free to rebuild its armed forces and cooperate with the companions of its selecting.
All this reveals greater than Syria’s navy weak point. It means that the brand new Syrian management believes sovereignty might be recovered by rebuilding state capability first. This technique, nevertheless, carries potential dangers: Israel might proceed to encroach on Syrian sovereignty whereas benefiting from Syrian restraint; and the Syrian authorities might ultimately start to lose the belief of Syrians and the broader Arab public, amongst whom Israel is overwhelmingly seen as a risk.
Syria’s weak point is actual. In late 2024, after the military of former President Bashar al-Assad collapsed, Israel struck strategic navy belongings throughout the nation. The brand new authorities then needed to start assembling a nationwide safety structure from dysfunctional establishments and a patchwork of armed teams.
For now, a Syrian navy response able to altering Israel’s behaviour is troublesome to think about.
As an alternative, al-Sharaa has positioned financial restoration and worldwide legitimacy on the prime of his priorities. His authorities has centered on rebuilding state establishments, restructuring the safety sector, restoring power provides, bettering international relations and reconnecting Syria to the worldwide financial system. However rebuilding Syria is a gigantic problem.
The World Financial institution estimates that reconstructing Syria’s broken bodily belongings will value about $216bn. A state going through wants on that scale can not restore its authority by means of navy establishments alone. It wants income, electrical energy, functioning administration, banking entry, funding and exterior relationships.
Al-Sharaa has achieved important progress on the worldwide entrance. Washington dismantled the broad Syria sanctions programme in 2025, whereas the European Union lifted its financial sanctions, though focused and security-related measures stay. On August 24, Washington additionally eliminated Syria from the State Sponsors of Terrorism record, eliminating one other key impediment to monetary normalisation and funding.
For Damascus, these steps broaden the sources with which the state can govern; they don’t seem to be merely an financial dividend of avoiding battle.
This additionally makes the dispute with Israel extra consequential. Syria’s reconstruction technique now relies upon closely on exactly the worldwide entry that years of isolation denied it. A significant navy escalation with Israel may undermine investor confidence, complicate Syria’s reintegration into worldwide banking and weaken the diplomatic help on which its restoration relies upon.
It may additionally expose Damascus to renewed political strain by Washington and the EU, even when this doesn’t mechanically translate into the reimposition of broad sanctions.
The dilemma is subsequently changing into sharper: Restraint helps Damascus protect the worldwide atmosphere it must rebuild the state, nevertheless it additionally provides Israel room to constrain the very navy and strategic capability Syria is making an attempt to reconstruct.
Israel has safety considerations concerning the new Syrian authorities, whose management emerged from an armed Islamist motion, and it’s more and more alarmed by Turkiye’s navy relationship with Damascus. However Israeli calls for have prolonged nicely past stopping hostile forces from approaching its border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for the demilitarisation of Syria’s Quneitra, Deraa and Suwayda provinces. His authorities has additionally opposed the deployment of forces belonging to Syria’s new military south of Damascus and has sought to limit the scope of Damascus’s navy cooperation with Turkiye.
Israel clearly needs to restrict the rebuilding of Syria’s navy capability. It sees such interference by means of the prism of preventive safety. Damascus sees the identical difficulty by means of the prism of sovereignty: A state that can’t resolve the place its military deploys or with whom it trains has not absolutely recovered strategic autonomy.
This is likely one of the central dangers of al-Sharaa’s technique. Syria is avoiding an unwinnable confrontation partly to rebuild the capacities of state energy, whereas those self same capacities are more and more changing into objects of Israeli strain.
There are limits to what restraint can obtain. Syria has the backing of different Arab states, whereas america and EU have supported the reconstruction of a functioning Syrian state as a part of their strategy to regional stability. Damascus has additionally repeatedly expressed curiosity in reaching a safety settlement with Israel.
And but, none of this has stopped Israeli navy motion.
The opposite danger considerations Syrian public opinion. Showing indefinitely unable to answer Israeli assaults may ultimately harm al-Sharaa’s public standing and the legitimacy of his authorities.
A big survey by the Arab Heart Washington DC carried out in 2025 discovered that 74 p.c of Syrians opposed recognising Israel, 70 p.c rejected an settlement that didn’t embody the return of the Golan Heights, and 88 p.c believed Israel threatened Syria’s safety and stability. On the similar time, 61 p.c mentioned the present authorities’s international coverage mirrored the views of the Syrian folks.
The findings are vital exactly as a result of they complicate the image. The survey predates the newest confrontations and doesn’t inform us whether or not Syrians favour navy retaliation. It establishes political pink strains, not a public demand for battle.
Wider Arab polling factors in the identical course. Throughout the international locations surveyed within the 2025 Arab Opinion Index, opposition to recognising Israel remained overwhelming.
That mentioned, Syria underneath the al-Assads additionally usually prevented confrontation with Israel whereas retaining a popularity for belonging to the regional “resistance” camp. The previous mannequin mixed avoidance of direct battle with alliances and armed networks that gave Damascus regional leverage.
Al-Sharaa’s authorities seems to be making a distinct wager, specializing in consolidated establishments, financial restoration, worldwide entry and a rebuilt nationwide navy.
This doesn’t change territorial sovereignty. It’s an try and rebuild the technique of exercising it.
The wager will develop into tougher to defend, each at dwelling and overseas, if restored state capability doesn’t ultimately give Syria larger management over its territory, its safety decisions and its international relations.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
