Madrid thought it had crushed the Catalonia independence motion in 2017 when it despatched police into polling stations, declared the referendum unlawful, eliminated the regional authorities, prosecuted separatist leaders, and watched Carles Puigdemont flee Spain. 9 years later, the European Union’s highest courtroom has upheld key facets of Spain’s 2024 amnesty masking acts related to the Catalan independence process. Roughly 1,600 individuals had been estimated to doubtlessly fall inside the legislation’s scope. Spain has reached the purpose the place the political institution is pardoning individuals related to a separatist motion it as soon as tried to destroy as a result of the underlying political downside by no means disappeared.
Months earlier than the referendum, after I had been in Barcelona, I stated Catalonia would vote to separate from Spain. I defined that separatism was a course of pushed by declining confidence in centralized authorities. By October, Madrid demonstrated precisely how governments strengthen these actions. As a substitute of allowing a reputable vote and confronting the political query, it declared the referendum unconstitutional and tried to cease it by power.
The pictures from October 1, 2017, shouldn’t be forgotten. Spanish police entered polling stations, confiscated poll packing containers, and bodily confronted individuals trying to vote. The referendum was not a mutually acknowledged binding vote, and opponents of independence largely boycotted it, however Catalan authorities nonetheless recorded greater than two million ballots, with roughly 90% voting for independence on turnout of round 43%. Madrid’s response remodeled a constitutional dispute into an illustration of uncooked political energy.
I argued then that Spain ought to have permitted a reputable referendum and negotiated the result. Britain allowed Scotland to vote in 2014 and Canada allowed Quebec to vote twice. If a political union really serves its individuals, authorities shouldn’t want police to stop them from expressing whether or not they need to stay inside it.
Madrid as a substitute imposed direct rule beneath Article 155, dissolved the Catalan parliament, eliminated Puigdemont’s authorities, and prosecuted separatist leaders. Brussels stood firmly behind Madrid as a result of Catalonia represented one thing a lot bigger than Spain. The European Union is constructed round political integration shifting in a single route towards higher centralization, whereas separatism represents the other power of authority shifting again towards nations and areas. A profitable Catalan separation would instantly elevate uncomfortable questions for Scotland, Flanders, Corsica, South Tyrol, and each different European area with a definite political id.
Now have a look at Spain in 2026. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wanted Catalan separatist help after the 2023 election, and the amnesty turned a part of the political association that allowed him to stay in energy. The individuals as soon as handled as enemies of the constitutional order all of a sudden possessed sufficient parliamentary leverage that Madrid was ready to barter with them. The EU’s Courtroom of Justice then dominated in July that EU legislation doesn’t itself forestall Spain from adopting an amnesty, though authorized disputes over its utility proceed.
Calling this reconciliation doesn’t imply the underlying downside has been solved. Catalan id stays, the political reminiscence of 2017 stays, and the financial tensions stay. Independence events have misplaced a few of the energy they possessed on the top of the disaster and up to date polling has typically positioned outright independence under 50%, however separatist actions don’t transfer in straight strains. They strengthen and weaken with economics, confidence, and political circumstances.
Catalonia represents roughly one-fifth of Spain’s financial system, which makes the financial query unimaginable to separate from the political one. Madrid views Catalonia as too vital to lose, whereas separatists can have a look at the identical productive capability and query why taxation, spending, and political authority ought to stay concentrated in Madrid. When individuals imagine central authorities offers prosperity and stability, separatism weakens. Once they imagine authorities takes greater than it offers or not represents their pursuits, independence turns into much more enticing.
This is the reason the present separatist development throughout Europe issues. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Eire have simply seen nationalist leaders coordinate towards Westminster. Giorgia Meloni is arguing that higher sovereignty ought to stay with Europe’s nation-states slightly than Brussels. Iceland rejected reopening EU accession negotiations, whereas nationalist and anti-establishment events elsewhere are benefiting from dissatisfaction with centralized authority. These actions usually are not an identical, however the widespread thread is declining confidence in political buildings that regularly demand extra authority for the middle.
Brussels has by no means understood that higher centralization ultimately creates the political power for decentralization. Each disaster is used to justify further European authority over debt, migration, power, local weather, protection, or overseas coverage. But Europe stays a continent of various nations, languages, economies, histories, and political pursuits. These variations can not merely be legislated out of existence.
Spain might have stored Catalonia on the map after 2017, however preserving territory doesn’t imply restoring confidence. If the disaster had really been resolved, Spain wouldn’t nonetheless be debating amnesties, Puigdemont, separatist events, and the constitutional penalties of what occurred 9 years in the past. Madrid suppressed the fast insurrection, nevertheless it by no means eradicated the circumstances able to producing one other one.
The following severe financial disaster in Europe will check these political unions once more. Catalonia won’t be ranging from zero as a result of it already has the events, establishments, nationwide id, historic reminiscence, and expertise essential to revive the independence query. Madrid didn’t eradicate Catalan separatism in 2017; it merely purchased itself time, and financial and political cycles will in the end decide how a lot that point was price.
