On this episode of “The Opinions,” the deputy Opinion editor Patrick Healy talks to the columnist Lydia Polgreen in regards to the world panic round migration, and what President Trump’s efforts to curb it imply for america and its place on the planet.
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Patrick Healy: I’m Patrick Healy, deputy editor of New York Occasions Opinion, and that is The First 100 Days, a weekly collection analyzing President Trump’s use of energy and his drive to alter America. This week I needed to speak to my colleague the columnist Lydia Polgreen. For the previous yr, Lydia has been reporting from around the globe about migration and the way the worldwide inhabitants is shifting.
She’s checked out who wins and who loses when a rustic decides there’s an excessive amount of immigration. In most of the wealthiest international locations, like america, these modifications have sparked a wave of conservative political victories and insurance policies. Now, as everyone knows, Donald Trump campaigned on a promise of mass deportation. That hasn’t occurred in a widespread manner but. However his administration has began a really public clampdown in ways in which courts have dominated illegal or unconstitutional.
Trump desires to totally reshape immigration in America and the way America sees immigrants, and I needed to speak to Lydia about what he’s doing right here and the place it might lead our society.
Lydia, thanks for coming in as we speak.
Lydia Polgreen: It’s a pleasure, Patrick.
Healy: I needed to the touch first on two instances which have been within the information and that you just and I’ve each been watching: Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was unintentionally deported to El Salvador, and Rumeysa Ozturk, the coed arrested from Tufts College. How do you concentrate on these two tales within the context of your years as a international correspondent and in addition as somebody who has coated migration so deeply?
Polgreen: I believe that each of those instances converse to one thing that goes to the center of the query of what sort of nation we wish to be. And sfor each of those instances, the best way that — in a matter that appears to me utterly lawless — the Trump administration appears to be making an attempt to display a ”do-not-come-here” message. And they’re going to train a rare quantity of discretion in energy in deciding who’s undesirable and search to take away them from this nation with none kind of due course of.
These instances, to me, converse to one thing that I believe People have a extremely onerous time wrapping their heads round, which is the concept that perhaps folks simply gained’t wish to come to america. We’ve these insurance policies of restriction which can be so harsh and so draconian that folks may look across the globe and say: “You already know what? Really, perhaps that’s not the place for me. Possibly there isn’t the chance that I assumed that there may be.”
And one of many issues that I’ve completed in my travels is discuss to lots of people, notably individuals who oppose migration, and ask them the query, “How would it not really feel to reside in a rustic that folks needed to go away fairly than be a rustic that folks needed to return to?”
The strain of that dynamic, of individuals worrying that outsiders are going to return and take the great issues that they’ve, with out appreciating that these outsiders are wanting to return and take part in what you’ve, fairly than take — it will get misplaced on folks. I worry that america is turning into a rustic that actually desires to show its again on what it has gained from being a spot that folks wish to come to.
Healy: Lydia, you simply obtained at one thing that puzzles me a lot about this. For a lot of my lifetime, so many People took satisfaction in the truth that folks from El Salvador and Turkey, college students from China or Western, Japanese Europe needed to return to America. And now, as you had been additionally saying, it looks as if many individuals now appear very, frankly, comfy with the concept that this administration desires to both cease a few of these folks from coming or really take away them. As you have a look at our latest historical past, is there a second that stands out to you that is smart about why this type of shift occurred amongst People?
Polgreen: Yeah. I’ve spent lots of time fascinated by the polling on immigration in america, notably at this second the place we’ve seen help for Donald Trump actually crater on the problems that he has historically completed fairly properly on. And the one place he’s really been above water is on immigration.
I believe that what that displays is a deep sense of unhappiness amongst People and People actually of all races and backgrounds — together with People of immigrant backgrounds — a way that issues had simply actually gotten uncontrolled.
It’s very straightforward to have a look at the scenario that was unfolding beneath the Biden administration and say we successfully had open borders, however we’ve had a political sort of impasse on migration for a really very long time. There has not been a severe immigration reform invoice in Congress for the reason that Nineteen Eighties — we’re speaking within the Reagan administration. When People discuss eager to crack down on immigration, I believe what they’re actually in search of is a few sense of management and a few sense that there’s an orderly course of that they’re fairly glad for newcomers to return to america and be part of our group, however there must be a way for that to occur in an orderly trend.
And within the midst of that, I believe you’ve had a really opportunistic Republican Get together beneath Donald Trump that has realized that for them, blocking any kind of immigration reform is definitely actually good politics as a result of it means you need to use the specter of an enormous flood of migrants coming into the nation as a perpetual boogeyman, as an argument for “because of this we have to be in cost” as a result of in any other case we’re going to have some kind of invasion. And it’s actually labored properly for them.
What you’re seeing if you ballot the American folks on this difficulty is definitely a need for compromise. They need one thing that is smart. And as a substitute we’re offered with a binary selection between open borders and what we’re seeing proper now, which is principally delivery folks off to international gulags. Clearly that’s not the vary of choices — there’s an enormous vary of choices. However within the meantime, I worry that we’re doing extraordinarily severe and actually long-lasting injury to the status of america as a worldwide vacation spot.
Healy: Lydia, I’m having a kind of moments of déjà vu that you just and I get after many years of working at The New York Occasions and being reporters. I simply left this focus group of Trump supporters on Monday evening, and probably the most animated a part of the main target group by far was about immigration. They touched on a number of of the phrases that you just simply touched on: this need for some sort of management, a way that issues obtained uncontrolled.
A few them keep in mind that second in the summertime of 2019 when all of the Democrats who had been operating for president in opposition to Trump stood on a debate stage and raised their hand basically for a way of open borders. These had been folks within the focus group who had been Democrats who voted for Democrats in 2016 and 2020 after which flipped to Trump in 2024. They needed the management that they thought Trump might get, however in addition they felt that sense of the puzzle, like what’s the proper end result?
That is the factor about Trump. He promised to do lots of the issues when he was operating for president that he’s now doing. He was true to his phrase to some extent. However I believe what so many individuals that I’ve heard from over these final 100 days have stated is that they didn’t anticipate college students to be snatched on sidewalks by mass federal brokers they usually didn’t suppose issues like that occurred in America.
So I’m questioning the way you see this finally enjoying out. Will People settle for this for very lengthy?
Polgreen: I believe it’s vital to level out that the polling is on immigration broadly. However if you ask about particular techniques and insurance policies, the help plummets, proper?
People are — as latest polling captures it — horrified by the masked brokers that you just talked about, the concept that individuals are being shipped off with out due course of. I don’t suppose these are issues that People, by and huge, help. However I believe that the truth is that maybe they belief that Donald Trump will have the ability to make some sort of a deal with out realizing that Trump’s whole political undertaking requires not making a deal. And, in reality, there was a deal that Democrats within the Senate and Republicans within the Senate got here collectively on. And Trump, who was not even president on the time, got here in to dam it. So, clearly there’s no need.
I believe that one of many massive themes that I’ve tried to hit on on this collection that I’ve completed about migration is, that migration is definitely a reasonably uncommon phenomenon. It’s at an all-time excessive, however on the similar time, it entails simply 4 % of the inhabitants of the world. And in order that signifies that 96 % of the world inhabitants lives within the nation the place they had been born.
And when you actually give it some thought and also you think about migrants as being human beings such as you and me, then that is smart. I imply, to select up and depart the place you’re from and go an extended distance, depart all the pieces behind, make a brand new life the place you don’t converse the language, the place you won’t know anyone, the place your instructional credentials might be devalued — that’s really simply an enormous, big, big factor to do.
I believe that immigration reform that really mirrored the truth that folks need to have the ability to hunt down alternative, but in addition return to their nation the place they’re from and have some sort of backwards and forwards — I imply, that somebody may wish to come and spend a while in america after which return to the place their household lives, the place their tradition is and that we have to actually think about the total human lives of people that select to return right here and worth that, and take into consideration methods to have a system that displays that.
I believe these focus group folks that you just discuss to, they might intuitively perceive that as a result of they themselves have skilled that. Possibly you progress to New York Metropolis however finally your coronary heart is all the time in rural Nebraska as a result of that’s the place you’re from.
In some ways in which’s what’s lacking in our dialog about immigration: an actual recognition that these are individuals who wish to reside lives that we’d acknowledge as lives that we reside ourselves.
Healy: I get the sense in speaking to folks that you could be be proper. They might be open to that sort of flexibility, fluidity, sort of the nonbinary, however that they need safety first. They wish to see proof that each events take this critically. They need some sense of management.
However I additionally do suppose they’re influenced by some extent you made earlier, that despite the fact that it’s solely 4 % of the inhabitants migrating, the boogeyman impact has actually taken maintain for lots of people that they see it as bigger.
I keep in mind in 2018 throughout the midterms, allies of President Trump tried to make it sound like there was going to be this invasion over the southern border that was going to achieve Minnesota. And Minnesota was going to be in such hazard. It did briefly have like an actual influence. I empathize with lots of these People who need some sort of change, who wish to see that dedication first, however aren’t fairly certain what occurs subsequent. And Lydia, I’ve to say, I believe the most important query on my thoughts is — I don’t know whether or not People will finally settle for, if we get there, armed navy camps within the southern states that grow to be stuffed with migrants being deported.
It feels like if Trump actually goes full-scale mass deportation, you could have a few of these locations erected, and you could have photographs and tales popping out that can make People look themselves within the mirror and say, “Is that this what I need in my nation?” And I do surprise, in your expertise abroad or simply in America, what you suppose the tolerance could be for that.
Polgreen: I believe the tolerance might doubtlessly be fairly excessive. I believe now we have these particular person tales which can be fairly compelling, however I believe that when you’ve been instructed time and again that it is a disaster, it is a disaster and the reply is we are able to solely resolve this disaster by having these big armed camps in components of america.
However, the opposite factor is that this deportation regime is definitely not going notably properly. I believe ——
Healy: He has not gotten the numbers he promised, proper?
Polgreen: He’s not gotten the numbers that he promised. It appears to me that there’s been a reluctance to do mass roundups at workplaces. I imply, why are we searching after college students when there’s all of this type of low-hanging fruit?
And I believe that what that displays is the kind of actual political actuality, which is that undocumented migrants are a extremely massive a part of the material of our communities and economies.
And on the finish of the day, the worth that People must pay when it comes to the best way that their lives would change is simply insupportable. We have already got a disaster in housing development and small enterprise homeowners who’re dealing with employee shortages and never in a position to get folks to work. So I believe that the “options” which can be being supplied by the Trump administration even have big, big, big knock-on results that individuals are not going to love. And I believe that turns into an actual political downside, and I believe that that’s why you’re seeing them have this type of opportunistic plucking-people-off-the-streets strategy.
Healy: Lydia, I wish to dig into the collection on migration that you just’ve been engaged on and notably the truth that whereas so many international locations have enacted insurance policies to maintain migrants out, international locations the world over are going to wish them greater than ever, as you had been simply saying, whether or not it’s due to jobs or frankly due to plunging birthrates. What has your reporting revealed?
Polgreen: I ought to say that this collection really predated Trump coming again to workplace.
What I’ve seen is that there’s simply a fully big mismatch between the wants of societies which can be, as you stated, dealing with massively declining birthrates and having very, very actual employee shortages, but in addition want the brand new blood, the brand new dynamism, the brand new concepts that migration has reliably introduced, notably when folks from poorer international locations migrate to wealthier international locations. They convey with them new views and new methods of considering which have actually introduced an amazing quantity of innovation to the international locations the place they arrive.
I believe that that could be a story that we’ve been very used to celebrating. And it was not till the Syrian civil struggle, when big numbers of Syrians actually had no selection however to go away Syria, and about 1,000,000 of them went to Europe. It kind of began this cascade of occasions, I believe, which have outlined our politics ever since, and referred to as into query the core tenets of the postwar agreements about refugees and the way now we have a accountability to supply asylum to folks. We’ve simply been residing within the shadow of that ever since.
It strikes me, although, that it’s not nearly folks. Individuals, I believe, are finally manifestations of a broader set of questions on human progress and about globalization.
So I believe that in some methods it’s reflecting a way of getting reached a little bit of a useless finish that societies that finally are saying, “We don’t need extra migrants” are additionally saying, “We don’t see a future, we don’t see progress occurring in our society. We’ve to hunker down and actually give attention to caring for our personal.”
I believe it’s very onerous for them to think about a world by which nobody desires to return into their nation. I believe it’s onerous for People to think about that.
Healy: Yeah. Lydia, why does migration trigger such an influence on how common folks take into consideration their international locations and societies and themselves? As a result of I’d argue that the migration you had been speaking about from Syria, components of the Center East, had a extra profound impact on Europe over the past 10 to fifteen years and the way folks in sure international locations thought of themselves — thought of their lack of management and have become resentful or indignant then on the struggle in Ukraine or Brexit or Putin and Orban and the rise of authoritarians greater than the rest. What’s it about migration that units folks off a lot?
Polgreen: Nicely, change is tough. Determining methods to reside alongside individuals who don’t appear like you, who perhaps converse a distinct language, who follow a distinct faith — this has all the time been a human problem.
This nation was actually constructed on waves of various sorts of individuals coming right here, and that was all the time uncomfortable. There have been intervals within the historical past of america the place sure teams of individuals have been declared undesirable: the Chinese language Exclusion Act, the 1924 Immigration Act that principally set very, very harsh quotas that ended up tragically protecting big variety of Jewish individuals who would’ve very a lot favored to have left Europe within the run-up to World Conflict II to hunt security in america. A lot of them — scientists, individuals who might have made extraordinary contributions to america. We are able to look again on that and see that as really an amazing loss for America.
One economist who I spoke to had written a paper in regards to the influence on innovation from that restriction act in 1924. Within the paper she wrote that the loss to American science throughout this era was the equal of eliminating a whole physics division at a significant college every year between 1925 and 1955.
However I believe that at a second the place lots of people are taking a look at their lives and questioning what the long run seems like and if this type of story of limitless growth and all the time shifting ahead and with the ability to take one of the best folks from all the world over and combine them into our society, however then even have them educate us new issues — I imply, that is the kind of fantasy model of america that you just and I — we’re each Gen X-ers — grew up with. That is what we discovered in civics class.
There’s an actual sense that that sort of upward incline of our prospects is over. And what you get is the politics that we’re in proper now.
Healy: It’s so fascinating to me what you’re getting on the relationship that People have to alter, and I really feel like migration encapsulates that so powerfully as a result of folks once more should sort of have a look at themselves in a mirror and ask: Who am I? Who do I need for my neighbor? What am I comfy with? Why am I uncomfortable with this? These are actually onerous questions, particularly, I believe, for a society which will really feel like issues are uncontrolled.
Polgreen: Yeah, and look, I spent most of my life residing outdoors of america, in international locations with very, very actual issues. And so I’m not that sympathetic to People who really feel that issues are uncontrolled as a result of I’ve lived in locations the place issues had been really uncontrolled, the place the state’s capacity to train a monopoly on violence was tenuous at greatest.
The U.S. is a wealthy nation. This can be a nation of people that simply don’t have issues in the best way that different folks on the planet have issues. And so I believe that’s a part of the reply; I believe we wrestle to think about what actual privation and actual issues may appear like.
Healy: Completely. Lydia, in your years as a reporter and a columnist, you’ve coated autocrats, authoritarians; you’ve coated reformers, small-d democrats. You will have perception into what drives leaders and why societies are drawn to sure sorts of leaders at sure factors. What does it say to you about America and our society that half the nation needed Trump again as president?
Polgreen: Nicely, not fairly half.
Healy: I get into fights with that. I generally say not fairly half, and individuals are like, can’t you narrow him some slack? He principally ——
Polgreen: No, completely not. Completely not. This man is a monster. You shouldn’t minimize him any slack.
Healy: OK.
Polgreen: I personally don’t consider that the president of america wants any slack. You’re probably the most highly effective particular person on the planet and information matter. However anyway ——
Healy: So, OK, a few of our fellow People really feel that manner, however what does it say to you about what America — why did this nation need him again?
Polgreen: I believe that all of it speaks to this need for some sort of change, and the best way that that’s been interpreted. Individuals will seize on the choices that you just give them, and I believe there’s a feeling that the nation is just not getting into the correct course. There’s dissatisfaction over globalization, over migration, over the state of the economic system. There’s simply all of this roiling dissatisfaction beneath the floor. And I believe when you’ve a pacesetter who has a easy story of how they’ll repair issues, and a voting inhabitants that feels that it’s continuously being bought a invoice of products lied to, guarantees made after which guarantees not saved, that there’s a sure attraction to somebody who’s providing up easy options.
The fact is that now we have had these sorts of binary decisions for a lot of my lifetime. I keep in mind within the 2004 election when George W. Bush was re-elected, everybody thought that was the most important disaster that they’d ever skilled. They simply couldn’t consider after the WMD [war on mass destruction], the tax cuts, all the issues that Bush had completed, that he might be re-elected. And it appeared after John Kerry misplaced that the Democrats had been simply going to be within the wilderness for a technology. However then what occurred? A singular determine emerges. Issues change. There’s a worldwide monetary disaster.
If you happen to have a look at the 2012 election, the place the shoe was on the opposite foot, the Republicans dropping that election thought that they wanted to go on this utterly centrist, average course. And what occurred? A singular determine emerged who got here in and upended all the pieces.
I don’t wish to evaluate Barack Obama to Donald Trump as a result of I believe they’re very, very totally different males. However I believe that what they’ve in frequent is that they had been in a position to articulate a transparent and very compelling imaginative and prescient of the place they had been going to take the nation.
Healy: Completely.
Polgreen: And so, we’re on this second the place, I’m not saying that we have to get down on our knees and pray for a savior, however I really really feel like we’re in a second the place each events are dealing with this downside. Individuals wish to be impressed. I believe the American character is to want inspiration over worry. However barring that, when you don’t provide inspiration ——
Healy: The boogeyman ——
Polgreen: Yeah, the boogeyman is the subsequent neatest thing.
Healy: I believe that’s so true, Lydia. I’d simply add that Donald Trump additionally impressed lots of People, however I believe he did fail to ship in that sense, particularly throughout Covid and now with what’s occurring with the economic system and tariffs. He might have had a really consequential first 100 days, however he might properly find yourself having a reasonably traditionally unpopular presidency.
Lydia, I wish to finish with going again to the world and America’s function on the planet and what Trump is doing to that function. You will have been so considerate over time about America’s promise and what America will get improper, its elementary flaws. I wish to ask you: What do you see Trump doing to America’s function on the planet at a time when the world wants America and America wants the world?
Polgreen: Having spent most of my life residing abroad and notably residing in poor international locations, in Africa and in Asia, there’s such a mixture of admiration, longing and resentment for america.
That have of dependency, of needing American assist or needing America’s help when you’re a NATO nation, of sort of residing in a worldwide economic system that’s dominated by america — that has been a supply of simply extraordinary resentment.
What I believe Donald Trump has completed is definitely given folks permission around the globe to present full voice to that anger and resentment at america that has all the time sort of bubbled under the floor. America has been the “hail fellow properly met” on the worldwide stage for a really very long time — individuals are glad to see us, however then additionally resent our self-satisfaction and our wealth and our navy energy, however then additionally rely on it.
To not get too psychoanalytic about all of this, however I believe that what we’re seeing proper now could be in some methods an nearly euphoric sense of liberation from having to faux that America is a few sort of benevolent participant on the planet, and that every one has been properly within the world compact that’s set by America. I simply suppose it’s going to be fascinating to see how the world reorients itself. I believe america will lose rather a lot from not being a part of these conversations.
Healy: That’s the knock-on impact that I actually surprise about Trump, if People are sort of uninterested in the world and wish to break from it, and the world is uninterested in America and Donald Trump and doesn’t belief this nation. What does that result in?
Polgreen: Yeah. The USA doesn’t actually have lots of expertise at being simply one among many international locations on the planet previously century. We don’t know what it’s like for folks to not wish to commerce with us or to not wish to come to us or to not wish to use our cash. I believe it’s very onerous for People to think about what it’s wish to be extra remoted.
My mom is from Ethiopia. For a few years, she traveled on an Ethiopian passport, and she or he’d get pulled apart on the Frankfurt airport and couldn’t go into the town with us once we had an extended layover as a result of they suspected that she was going to desert her husband and kids and reside on welfare in Germany. I don’t know what they suspected.
So it’s been actually hanging to me to see the variety of People who’re considering: “Hmm, ought to I be fascinated by constructing a life some other place? Do I would like choices?” America was the world’s choice, and if it’s now not the choice for outsiders, what does that imply for America? What does that imply for our choices? I believe we’re headed for a interval of profound decline if issues go on this continued trajectory.
Healy: Lydia, thanks a lot for becoming a member of me.
Polgreen: This was nice, Patrick. Thanks a lot to your actually considerate questions.
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This episode of “The Opinions” was produced by Jillian Weinberger. It was edited by Kaari Pitkin and Alison Bruzek. Mixing by Sonia Herrero. Unique music by Carole Sabouraud, Aman Sahota and Isaac Jones. Reality-checking by Mary Marge Locker, Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Viewers technique by Shannon Busta and Kristina Samulewski. The director of Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.
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