COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a brand new subscriber and simply needed to say thanks. Your work has given me an actual understanding of how time and value work together, and it’s exceptional how your forecasts keep away from the bias that pervades everybody else’s predictions. Even with all of the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June simply as you forecasted at the beginning of the yr. It simply proves that all the pieces hinges on what folks consider.
Thanks for the schooling.
Shane
REPLY: What I’ve all the time discovered is that TIME is extra vital than PRICE. You could have a finite period of time and that dictates the pattern. PRICE is secondary. You may have a value goal, however in case you run out of TIME, the sport is over.
TIME and PRICE are two completely separate forecasts that should align to substantiate a significant market turning level. PRICE alone is meaningless with out the proper timing.
The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and extra vital issue . It’s the “cloth of the universe,” not only a part of market evaluation. The central concept is {that a} market transfer reaching a selected value stage will not be important except it happens at a predetermined time limit.
Value as a Secondary Goal
Value targets are decided by patterns and reversals, however they’re all the time secondary and have to be “earned” by the market. Within the Down, I had offered a number of value aims (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The secret’s that reaching one goal earlier than the TIME goal signaled the subsequent value stage turns into potential.
Markets are seen as a collection of linked occasions (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” inside this obvious chaos, one can outline situations to navigate the market, reasonably than attempting to foretell it with one-dimensional certainty. Those that argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing each PATTERNS in addition to TIME. As Einstein stated, God doesn’t play cube with the universe.
