The crackdown on dissent and speech in Minnesota this winter follows a pattern that is common in countries that slide from democracy to autocracy: A leader enacts a legally dubious policy. Citizens protest that policy. The government responds with intimidation and force. When people are hurt, the government blames them and lies about what happened.
The New York Times editorial board published an index in October tracking 12 categories of democratic erosion, based on historical patterns and interviews with experts. Our index places the United States on a scale of 0 to 10 for each category. Zero represents the United States before President Trump began his second term — not perfect, surely, but one of the world’s healthiest democracies. Ten represents the condition in a true autocracy, such as China, Iran or Russia.
Based on recent events, we are moving our assessment of one of the categories — stifling speech and dissent — up one notch, to level four:
Stifling speech and dissent
Mr. Trump’s Justice Division has grow to be an enforcer of his private pursuits, focusing on folks for legally doubtful causes whereas making a tradition wherein his allies can act with impunity. The targets embrace Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, and a number of other Democratic. True authoritarians go a lot additional, however Mr. Trump has already undone the post-Watergate depoliticization of the Justice Division.
The wide-ranging abuses in Minnesota are the main reason for the change. The Trump administration is conducting a military-style operation in an American city under dubious pretenses. The stated goal is immigration enforcement, even though the state is home to relatively few undocumented immigrants. The true goal seems to be instilling fear in people who oppose Mr. Trump’s agenda. Federal agents have killed two protesters, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, and assaulted and menaced others. The administration has made clear that the abusers will face no accountability.
The acceleration in the stifling of dissent and speech is broader than what’s happening in Minnesota. Since late last year, the administration has also widened its campaign of investigating perceived enemies, such as Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. The Department of Homeland Security has used subpoenas that no judge approved to demand information on critics. The F.B.I. searched the home of a journalist who had exposed problems with the administration’s policies.
Our country is still not close to being a true autocracy. Many forms of speech and dissent remain vibrant in the United States, in courts, in Congress, the media and the streets. But Mr. Trump and his allies have restricted dissent in fundamental ways. It is a violation of basic American values.
The Autocracy Index
12 markers of democratic erosion
Stifling speech and dissent
Trendy authoritarian takeovers usually don’t begin with a army coup. They as a substitute contain an elected chief who makes use of the powers of the workplace to consolidate authority and make political opposition troublesome. The repression of speech and dissent is central to this course of. Even earlier than current months, Mr. Trump had accomplished so by punishing legislation corporations that had opposed him, revoking the visas of overseas college students who criticized the struggle in Gaza and contributing to intimidation campaigns towards federal judges.
Persecuting political opponents
Autocrats use the immense energy of legislation enforcement as a political instrument, and Mr. Trump’s Justice Division has grow to be an enforcer of his pursuits. It targets his perceived enemies, comparable to Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, on shaky grounds whereas dropping respectable investigations of Mr. Trump’s allies or pardoning them. True authoritarians go a lot additional, however Mr. Trump has undone the post-Watergate bipartisan efforts to depoliticize the Justice Division.
Bypassing the legislature
When a democracy slides towards autocracy, the chief usually finds methods to neuter the legislature. The Trump administration has violated the legislation by withholding funding approved by Congress. Mr. Trump has gutted congressionally approved businesses, together with the U.S. Company for Worldwide Improvement. He has imposed new taxes — his tariffs — with out congressional approval. He has ordered overseas military attacks with out consulting Congress in ways in which his current predecessors did.
Would-be authoritarians recognize that courts can keep them from consolidating power, and they take steps to weaken or bypass judges. At times, the Trump administration has openly defied federal judges. A judge in Minnesota recently excoriated Immigration and Customs Enforcement for disobeying nearly 100 orders in January alone. On other occasions, the administration has engaged in gamesmanship, ignoring the spirit of judicial orders.
Declaring false emergencies
Autocrats usually curtail democracy by declaring an emergency and arguing that the risk requires them to train uncommon levels of energy. Mr. Trump’s current predecessors weren’t good on this situation, however he has reached another level. His sweeping tariffs are one instance. Justifying deportations by claiming {that a} Venezuelan gang had taken over American cities is one other instance.
Using the military at home
Authoritarians ceaselessly and performatively use the army for home management. Mr. Trump deployed the Nationwide Guard in Los Angeles to crack down on protests. He has additionally begun to deal with the army as an extension of himself, firing high-ranking officers with out good purpose and giving overtly political speeches to army readers. ICE just isn’t a part of the army, however it’s appearing largely as a paramilitary drive in Minnesota and elsewhere.
Vilifying marginalized groups
Authoritarians are likely to demean minority teams, attempting to show them into perceived threats that present justification for a pacesetter to amass energy. Mr. Trump has vilified immigrants and transgender Americans. His appointees and political allies have made blatantly racist, Islamophobic and antisemitic statements. Mr. Trump has denigrated Somalis in outrageous methods, comparable to saying, “They contribute nothing. I don’t need them in our nation.”
Democratic governments prize accurate information. Authoritarians seek to suppress inconvenient truths. The Trump administration has sought to manipulate government information by, among other things, sidelining scientific experts. The administration has also taken steps to control the media, using the threat of regulatory punishment to silence criticism.
Trying to take over universities
Authoritarians, recognizing that universities are hotbeds of impartial thought and political dissent, usually single them out for repression. A signature coverage of Mr. Trump’s second time period has been his attack on higher education. He has reduce thousands and thousands of {dollars} of analysis funding, tried to dictate hiring and admissions insurance policies and brought steps to dictate what faculties can train.
Creating a cult of personality
Emperors and kings usually glorified themselves by displaying their portraits all over the place. The American custom rejected that hagiography for dwelling presidents — until Mr. Trump. Amongst current examples: He renamed the Kennedy Heart so as to add his personal identify. The Board of Peace for Gaza can be housed at an institute newly named for him. And the federal government now sells a so-called gold card, together with his face on it, that prices $1 million and gives authorized residency to immigrants.
Using power for personal profit
Authoritarians usually flip the federal government right into a machine for self-enrichment. Mr. Trump glories in his administration’s culture of corruption. He rewards overseas governments that bestow presents on him (like a 747 airplane) and approve offers together with his firm. His household has made lots of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} from crypto. In some instances, he has later helped his benefactors, together with by giving pardons.
Manipulating the law to stay in power
Authoritarians change election guidelines to assist their occasion, and so they rewrite legal guidelines to disregard time period limits. In Mr. Trump’s second time period, he has proven worrisome indicators of attempting to entrench the power of the Republican Party — and just lately taken steps to speed up that marketing campaign. In February, he referred to as for the federal authorities to take over management of election administration from states. That builds on earlier strikes, comparable to an government order that may drive states to reject some mail-in ballots.
Background and methodology: The clearest sign that a democracy has died is that a leader and his party make it impossible for their opponents to win an election and hold power. Once that stage is reached, however, the change is extremely difficult to reverse.
The 12 benchmarks in this editorial offer a way to understand how much Mr. Trump is eroding American democracy. The categories are based on interviews with legal scholars, political scientists, historians and other democracy experts. The ratings come from the New York Times editorial board. In our 0-to-10 scales, zero represents roughly where the United States, flawed though it was, had been under presidents of both parties prior to Mr. Trump. Ten represents the condition in a true authoritarian state. Moving even one notch toward autocracy is a worrisome sign.
We first published the index in October 2025. This version is the first update. We plan to publish future updates as events warrant.
Photographs by Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters; Leah Millis/Reuters; Paola Chapdelaine for The New York Times; Charly Triballeau/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images; Ben Hovland/Minnesota Public Radio, via Associated Press; and Tim Evans/Reuters.
