The Kremlin readout recommended that Mr Putin has not budged on any of his long-stated most calls for to finish the warfare in Ukraine: Not his territorial calls for for the management of 4 annexed areas and definitely not the demilitarisation of Ukraine, together with its non-membership within the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO) and restricted dimension of its armed forces.
Importantly, Mr Trump seemingly lacked a contingency plan for this consequence.
Rebuffing the American proposal was at all times going to be a giant gamble for Mr Putin – one which dangers the US imposing additional sanctions on Russia and even boosting American army help to Ukraine as a approach of exerting strain.
THE BALL IS IN DONALD TRUMP’S COURT
Per week after the US-Ukraine deal put the “ball in Russia’s court docket”, Mr Trump now finds it in his court docket. Will he put extra strain on Ukraine to accede to Russia’s calls for or will he resort to placing strain on Russia?
The previous is extra doubtless than the latter, given how Trump has performed his playing cards thus far. However there are limits as to how profitable this strategy might be.
In reality, Mr Trump would possibly come to grasp quickly that he has reached the top of the highway with Ukraine and that strain on Russia would be the solely method to transfer ahead if he’s as severe about peace as he has insisted.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of Worldwide Safety on the College of Birmingham and Head of the Division of Political Science and Worldwide Research.
