Donald Trump’s menace to impose a 50 per cent tariff on all exports from the EU would ship a hammer blow to key manufacturing sectors, together with autos, aerospace, chemical compounds and different items.
The US is the EU’s largest single commerce companion, accounting for simply over 20 per cent of products exports value greater than €530bn in 2024, based on figures from the European Fee.
Germany, Eire, Italy and France are the main exporters by nation. This consists of greater than €200bn of equipment and autos, €160bn of chemical compounds and €25bn of food and drinks.
Maria Demertzis, the pinnacle of the financial system technique centre on the Convention Board think-tank in Brussels, stated the affect of a 50 per cent tariff could be “unsustainable”, significantly for uncovered sectors the place the US was a key market.
Financial modelling performed when Trump imposed a 20 per cent tariff final April estimated that the tariffs would hit the bloc’s GDP by 0.2 per cent. This could develop to 0.5 per cent if 50 per cent tariffs had been imposed, Demertzis added.
“It’s nonetheless a comparatively small general macroeconomic impact, though will probably be giant in some international locations, like Eire, [which] are extra reliant on exports to the US,” stated Demertzis. By way of sectors, “the results can be very huge certainly”, she added.
Pharmaceutical items
Medicines had been probably the most exported items from the EU to the US in 2024, with virtually €80bn medicine bought into the US market, based on Eurostat.
Nathalie Moll, director-general of the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, stated the group was “deeply involved” about elevated commerce tensions between Europe and the US.
She warned tariffs would create shortages of medicines and urged the US and the EU to keep away from them at “all prices”. “Tariffs on medicines could be nothing in need of a catastrophe for sufferers and [the] trade on each side of the Atlantic,” she stated.
Thus far, prescribed drugs have been excluded from the so-called reciprocal tariffs launched at first of April, although Trump has launched a Part 232 probe into the nationwide safety implications of counting on international manufacturing. This might result in tariffs on the sector.
European pharmaceutical firms comparable to Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of weight problems and diabetes drug Ozempic, and Sanofi, the French drugmaker, have important home manufacturing. However US pharmaceutical firms have additionally constructed giant manufacturing bases within the EU, significantly in Eire, the place they’ve taken benefit of a decrease tax charge.
Trump has complained that Eire has “obtained your complete US pharmaceutical trade in its grasp”. “We don’t make our personal medicine, our personal prescribed drugs any extra,” he stated. “The drug firms are in Eire and they’re in a lot of different locations — China.”
Aerospace
Aerospace trade executives had already warned of upper prices on account of Trump’s baseline 10 per cent tariff on virtually all international locations. The trade has since been lobbying the White Home, arguing for a return to the tariff-free period that has largely been the established order since 1979.
Each Boeing and Airbus import elements for brand new plane from numerous areas world wide. The US airplane maker, which sources elements for its planes from international locations comparable to Italy and Japan, is seen as significantly uncovered to the Trump tariffs.
Even earlier than Friday’s announcement, Ryanair — Europe’s largest low-cost airline and certainly one of Boeing’s greatest clients — had warned it might delay deliveries of plane if tariffs made them costlier.
Michael O’Leary, Ryanair chief govt, stated this month that the airline was locked in a “debate” with Boeing over which facet would choose up tariff prices.
Talking on Friday earlier than information of the tariffs broke, Guillaume Faury, Airbus chief govt, advised an viewers in London that “no one needs to pay for tariffs”.
Autos
Automotive executives instantly lashed out on the failure of the EU to achieve a cope with the US to decrease the 25 per cent tariffs it has imposed on foreign-made autos and elements.
“The EU is turning into extra hated than China, which is mind-boggling. The EU wants to return to the negotiating desk with nice urgency,” stated Lynn Calder, chief govt of off-roader producer Ineos Automotive, which makes its autos in France.
“Each different area on this planet is mobilising, the place is Europe? Their ‘do nothing’ technique is failing.”
The automotive trade had been hopeful in current weeks that Brussels and Washington would attain an settlement on automotive imports, particularly after US reached a cope with the UK for a ten per cent tariff charge.
The EU presently imposes a ten per cent tariff on US automotive imports whereas the US solely prices 2.5 per cent.
“I don’t suppose the US authorities is fascinated by closing down commerce between Europe and the US,” Volvo Vehicles chief govt Håkan Samuelsson advised the FT’s Way forward for the Automotive summit final week, saying the EU ought to “degree” the tariffs to the identical degree because the US.
Oliver Zipse, BMW’s chief govt, additionally predicted earlier this month that Trump’s tariffs on international vehicles could be lowered from July.
It’s unclear whether or not Trump’s proposed 50 per cent tariffs could be along with the present 25 per cent duties on automotive imports, or rather than them. Duties in extra of 25 per cent would make automotive exports unviable for European producers.
Larger tariffs would hit carmakers comparable to Audi and Porsche with no manufacturing footprint within the US, as nicely Volvo Vehicles, Mercedes-Benz and others that export autos bought within the US from Europe.
The US is the second-largest marketplace for exports of EU autos after the UK. The EU exported 757,654 new autos to the US final 12 months, valued at €38.9bn. It imported simply 169,152 new autos from the US, value €7.8 billion, based on European automotive trade physique Acea.
Food and drinks
Though the EU’s €25bn food and drinks exports to the US are small in contrast with main industrial sectors, they’re loaded with political significance and prone to be the goal of retaliatory measures on each side.
The 2-way commerce in agrifood uncooked supplies, elements, and completed merchandise is valued at €40bn. Many US-produced nuts, fruit and greens are on the checklist for potential retaliation by Brussels, whereas French champagne and Italian Parmigiano cheese are among the many European merchandise below menace from US countermeasures.
Dirk Jacobs, director-general of Meals Drink Europe, which represents the sector, referred to as for “de-escalation” to keep away from the trade getting caught within the crossfire of a full-blown transatlantic commerce warfare.
