Ukrainian and European leaders are frightened President Donald Trump will get performed for a second time when he meets his Russian counterpart in Alaska on Friday — and so they’re proper to be nervous.
Certainly, if Trump desires to emerge from the talks a grasp negotiator relatively than a pushover, his smartest transfer could also be to postpone the summit till it’s higher ready.
Trump isn’t fallacious to strive sitting down with U.S. foes and rivals, even the place extra typical leaders would keep away from the danger. However rapidly organized encounters hardly ever outcome as hoped, and every part in regards to the go to by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow that produced the Alaska invitation final week screams confusion.
With a lot fog on the American aspect, it’s greatest to grasp what Friday’s assembly is about from the perspective of Vladimir Putin. To him, it is a windfall he can use each to defuse Trump’s risk of sanctions and additional his conflict effort.
That’s what occurred earlier this yr, when the previous KGB handler made good use of Trump’s apparent desperation to safe a peace deal in Ukraine and an financial reset with Moscow. Irrespective of how a lot Trump was keen to present away, together with sanctions reduction, Putin noticed only one factor: a strategic alternative.
With the U.S. now not keen to assist arm Ukraine’s protection, besides — as finally persuaded — when paid, Putin did the one logical factor: He upped the tempo of his conflict effort, each on land and within the air, to benefit from Kyiv’s weakening place. Finally, even Trump needed to acknowledge he was getting strung alongside.
Confronted with an Aug. 8 deadline earlier than the U.S. imposed monetary penalties on Russia for its intransigence, Putin’s activity when Witkoff arrived in Moscow was as soon as once more to do exactly sufficient to stall any U.S. motion, whereas ensuring any concrete outcomes would strengthen Russia’s place. Up to now, that’s going swimmingly. He bought one thing for nothing. The primary precedence was to maintain Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy out of the room, relatively than have the three-way assembly that Trump — to his credit score — was suggesting.
The Ukrainian chief’s presence would require precise negotiation, making Russian disinterest onerous to cover. By insisting on a bilateral sit down with Trump, Putin can search to suggest phrases this U.S. administration would possibly settle for, however he is aware of Ukraine can’t. That might as soon as once more make Zelenskyy the particular person Trump blames for standing in the best way of peace, taking the strain off Putin.
The second objective was to discover a location for the assembly that might reveal, each to Russians and to leaders world wide, that Putin is now not a pariah avoiding journey for concern of arrest beneath a conflict crimes warrant the Worldwide Prison Court docket issued towards him in 2023. Certainly, this could be Putin’s first go to to the U.S. (outdoors journeys to the United Nations in New York) since 2007, earlier than his invasion of Georgia the next yr. A summit in Alaska — a U.S. state that when belonged to the Russian Empire — would ship a powerful sign of Putin’s rehabilitation, whereas additionally pointing to the Kremlin’s lengthy historic attain as an incredible energy.
Trump’s invitation alone is a win for the Kremlin. If the summit additionally serves to delay U.S. sanctions or produces a “peace” plan that sows dissension between Ukraine and its allies, all of the extra so. However any real path to an enduring finish to hostilities will want much more strain, each monetary and army, in addition to preparation.
If an account in Germany’s Bild journal is right, Putin and his officers ran rings round Witkoff after they met the U.S. actual estate-developer-turned-diplomat final week, leaving him confused about what was on supply.
No matter Witkoff might have misunderstood, it was sufficient for the U.S. president to say land swaps had been on the desk, after they aren’t. What the Kremlin seems prepared to think about is that Ukraine ought to hand over elements of the Donbas that Russia hasn’t but been in a position to conquer, in alternate for a ceasefire.
So, not a land swap, however land handed over in perpetuity in alternate for a truce that’s most likely non permanent. In response to Bild, the Russian “supply” may additionally have required Ukraine to first withdraw its troops from a lot bigger areas of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces that Russia additionally claims to have annexed however has but been unable to occupy.
The Kremlin may additionally be keen to supply a truce in its air conflict to keep at bay sanctions, however that’s much less of a concession than it appears. In contrast to two years in the past, when that was a one-way battle, Ukraine’s newly constructed long-range drones and missiles are doing growing injury to Russian power and army property.
On Monday, they hit a manufacturing unit making steering techniques for Russia’s missiles close to the town of Nizhny Novgorod, about 440 kilometers (270 miles) east of Moscow. A truce would possibly at this level be welcomed by each side.
Ukrainians know they’ll must cede management of territory to finish Putin’s invasion. However they take into consideration the sorts of concessions made to Josef Stalin in Germany on the finish of World Struggle II. He secured management over the jap half of that nation for the Soviet Union, however West Germany retained its sovereign declare over the east and — finally — bought it again. Simply as vital is that after a short try at seizing all of Berlin, the Kremlin left West Germany to prosper in peace.
There’s no indication Putin desires that form of deal. It will do nothing to additional his precise targets in going to conflict, which had been to safe management over a demilitarized Ukraine in addition to U.S. acceptance of a Russian sphere of affect in Europe, uncontested by the North Atlantic Treaty Group.
Putin by no means hides this. It’s what he means when he says he’s glad to speak a couple of ceasefire, simply as quickly because the “root causes” of the conflict are addressed. There will likely be a time and place for a Trump-Putin summit. Nevertheless it’s unlikely to be this week in Alaska.
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