I used to be promoting tickets for the end-of-year play at my daughter’s college in June when my telephone began buzzing nonstop. Folks had been calling and texting to ask if I used to be OK. Rafael Correa, the previous president of Ecuador, had simply posted on the social media platform X criticizing an interview I gave to El País through which I mentioned his political occasion was struggling to counter the rising reputation of the present president, Daniel Noboa.
Mr. Correa, identified for his low tolerance of criticism, wrote from exile in Belgium: “Does anybody know who Caroline Ávila is?” It was a sign to his thousands and thousands of followers. Inside minutes I turned the middle of a digital firestorm — with posts defending my work, in addition to posts attacking me and the journalist who wrote the El País story. That day, I really understood the complete weight of Mr. Correa’s enduring affect in Ecuador.
Whereas not even residing within the nation, Mr. Correa stays one of the crucial influential — and polarizing — figures in Ecuadorean politics. His presence is sustained not solely by his supporters but in addition by his adversaries, who can’t appear to cease speaking about him however have did not assemble a compelling various. Primarily, they’ve merely dismissed Mr. Correa as a relic of the previous. That appears solely to have strengthened his grip on the individuals.
Mr. Correa ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. His administration presided over a surge in public investment fueled by massive oil revenues and Chinese language loans, which each financed formidable infrastructure tasks and expanded entry to well being care and schooling. For a lot of Ecuadoreans, these had been years of stability and a robust state presence. However throughout Mr. Correa’s presidency, the focus of executive power, the erosion of institutional checks and balances and repeated attacks on journalists and opposition leaders additionally sparked critical issues about democratic backsliding.
He has been residing in self-imposed exile in Belgium since 2017, which granted him political asylum in 2022. He’s been convicted on corruption charges in Ecuador and sentenced to eight years in jail there.
Mr. Correa has been legally barred from operating for president once more, however he nonetheless leads Ecuador’s largest political occasion and maintains a robust digital presence. With over a million followers on TikTok and 4 million on X, Mr. Correa continues to form Ecuador’s political discourse. On TikTok he feedback on present occasions, criticizes the federal government and defends his administration’s legacy, usually utilizing humor and sharp language to attach with youthful audiences. He promotes his occasion’s priorities and messaging, reinforcing his position as a robust political power.
On Sunday, Ecuadoreans go to the polls within the second spherical of a presidential election. By all indications, Mr. Correa’s affect is unlikely to wane, regardless of the consequence. Neither of the 2 candidates appears prepared to supply a imaginative and prescient daring and coherent sufficient to exchange the one he left behind.
Mr. Correa promised certainty in unsure instances, however critics argue that his authorities weakened the rule of legislation and set troubling precedents. In the present day this twin legacy — of fabric progress for some and institutional fragility for others — stays central to his lasting affect.
Three presidents have adopted Mr. Correa’s left-wing authorities: Lenín Moreno, Guillermo Lasso and the incumbent, Mr. Noboa. The latter two had been on the precise of the political aisle, and Mr. Moreno — who had been Mr. Correa’s vp after which his successor — promptly shifted to the precise after taking workplace. In the meantime, the nation’s state of affairs has worsened. The poverty charge rose from 21.5 percent in December 2017 to 28 percent in December 2024. Murder charges soared from 5.6 per 100,000 people on the finish of 2016 to 38.76 per 100,000 people on the finish of 2024. Within the absence of credible management, many citizens look again at Mr. Correa’s years with longing.
The candidates in Sunday’s election are Mr. Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman, and Luisa González, a former lawmaker and Mr. Correa’s chosen successor. It’s a good race that displays the nation’s deep political divide. In 2023 Mr. Noboa ran and beat Ms. González, helped by help from a coalition of anti-Correa forces.
Ms. González is prone to profit from nostalgia for the Correa years; a lot of the former president’s supporters are anticipated to vote for her. She echoes Mr. Correa’s centralized method to safety coverage and advocates a robust state position in legislation enforcement. Nevertheless, her platform lacks clear proposals on judicial reform and institutional safeguards. She has supplied few specifics on find out how to strengthen judicial independence or coordinate with worldwide companions — essential omissions, given the transnational nature of the organized crime networks at present destabilizing Ecuador.
One among Mr. Noboa’s major electoral challenges is the turbulence that has stricken his administration. He has maintained a publicly contentious relationship together with his vp, and a significant oil discipline negotiation was abruptly canceled amid public outcry over a scarcity of transparency. His administration has confronted accusations of authoritarianism for its reliance on rising militarization to fight crime, notably when 4 youngsters had been found dead shortly after their detention by a army patrol.
To maneuver ahead, the nation should supply voters one thing they haven’t seen in years: Ecuadoreans need safety, however not at the price of army repression. They need a robust financial system, however not on the worth of corruption or impunity. They need social justice, however not in trade for political loyalty.
The nation should have a stronger intelligence division for legal investigations, supported by an impartial judicial system. The brand new president ought to prioritize investing in schooling and youth reintegration applications to stop recruitment into organized crime. Mr. Correa’s mannequin promotes a robust state as the one path to social well-being, however Ecuador can reveal {that a} clear, environment friendly state is equally able to development and fairness.
That Sunday at my daughter’s college, when individuals on-line reacted so shortly and broadly to Mr. Correa’s publish, I noticed how far his attain nonetheless extends. However one thing else occurred, too. The general public outcry in protection of my work was robust sufficient that Mr. Correa deleted the publish and relayed an apology. He didn’t know me or my work as a tutorial and impartial analyst. Apparently, for him, it was unusual that somebody may exist exterior the political divide.
In Ecuador, you’re both with Mr. Correa or towards him. Anything is considered as suspicious. However that’s precisely the entice the nation wants to flee. To actually transfer previous his legacy, a frontrunner should encourage a brand new imaginative and prescient of the state. Till that occurs, Ecuador will stay a nation caught between reminiscence and chance.
Caroline Ávila Nieto is an Ecuadorean educational and researcher with a Ph.D. in communications. She teaches on the College of Cuenca, the College of Azuay and Simón Bolívar Andean College. Her analysis focuses on political communication and the essential understanding of electoral and governmental processes in Ecuador. She lives in Cuenca, Ecuador.
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