4 years after navy chief Normal Mamady Doumbouya led a coup that toppled the civilian authorities of the day and derailed the nation’s fragile democracy, Guineans will head to the polls in a Sunday vote that can probably not ship any surprises.
The younger navy chief, identified for his signature wraparound sun shades, is broadly anticipated to win the vote on December 28 and solidify his maintain on energy within the resource-rich West African nation, as key opposition figures have been barred from collaborating.
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With a inhabitants of 15 million, Guinea holds one of many world’s largest deposits of iron ore and is the main exporter of bauxite – a key element of aluminium. Doumbouya’s authorities is banking on its huge mines, particularly the mega Simandou mine – one of many largest iron ore initiatives on the planet, to create extra jobs and income within the coming years. Diamond, gold and uranium deposits are additionally considerable within the nation.
Doumbouya has gained some help on account of new insurance policies which have boosted mining exports. Nevertheless, the final’s detractors query his legitimacy, citing his earlier pledge to not run in elections, in addition to his varied bans on protests and media.
The 2021 coup destabilised Guinea’s democratic trajectory. After a long time of coups and dictatorships, it was solely in 2010 that Guineans voted within the first, really free and truthful elections since independence from France in 1958. The coup additionally brought on suspensions from the African Union and sanctions from the regional Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc.
Guinea’s capital is the coastal metropolis of Conakry. Most Guineans practise Islam (85 %), whereas others are Christians and animists (15 %). The Fulani or Peul, Malinke and Soso are the most important ethnic teams, though there are greater than two dozen ethnic teams. The nation is understood for being the supply of the Niger River, which flows by way of a number of nations and empties into the Atlantic Ocean by way of Nigeria.
How does voting work?
About 6.7 million eligible voters (these over 18 years) are registered for the elections. There are 23,662 polling stations.
The president shall be elected by an absolute majority vote by way of a two-round system, for a seven-year time period.
A excessive turnout is predicted primarily based on the 87 % of voters who turned up for a referendum held in September. That vote was largely seen as a take a look at of Doumbouya’s recognition, and greater than 90 % voted “sure” to a brand new structure that permits navy leaders to run for workplace, extends the presidential mandate from 5 to seven years, and creates a senate, of which a 3rd of members can be presidential appointees.
9 presidential candidates have been cleared to run, though the key opposition challengers who stood an actual probability have been barred on technicalities. Not one of the eight opposition candidates has a strong political footing. Candidates took half in a night collection on state tv the place they debated one another’s proposals weeks forward of the vote.
Campaigns opened on November 28 and closed at midnight on December 25. Doumbouya largely stayed off the marketing campaign path, though his ministers travelled throughout the nation, urging civilians and the navy to vote at massive rallies that featured musicians and attracted younger individuals. One personal businessman additionally held a carnival in Conakry to help Doumbouya this week.
About 10,000 election observers from the Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union, the United Nations, the Worldwide Organisation of the Francophonie and several other different organisations shall be current.
Who has been excluded?
Cellou Dalein Diallo, 73
Diallo, a longtime opposition chief, was going to be Doumbouya’s most formidable challenger. The previous prime minister (2004-2006) heads the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG). He contested the 2010 and 2015 elections however was crushed by Alpha Conde, his archrival, on each events. When the coup leaders seized energy in 2021, Diallo welcomed the transfer and pledged his willingness to work with them in restoring democracy.
Nevertheless, Doumbouya’s authorities launched corruption proceedings towards him in relation to the sale of Air Guinee, the nationwide service, again in 2002, when Diallo was transport minister. Diallo, who accused the navy ruler of a witch-hunt to dam him from elections, has since been pressured into exile in neighbouring Senegal and in France. In August, his celebration was one among three suspended as a result of paperwork they submitted had “substantial deficiencies”, based on the Ministry of Territorial Administration, which is in control of the elections, versus an impartial elections fee. Diallo was additionally disqualified primarily based on his residency, as the brand new structure adopted in September requires that presidential candidates have their main residence within the nation.
Alpha Conde, 87
Conde’s choice to run for a 3rd time period in 2021, after serving two five-year phrases, threw Guinea into chaos and led to the September coup.
A longtime opponent of navy regimes within the nation, Conde promised to strengthen democracy upon his election in 2010, after polls that, regardless of being turbulent, have been additionally an opportunity for the nation to depart from a long time of dictatorship. He was the primary Guinean president to be elected in a free election. His authorities oversaw enhancements within the mining sector and managed the 2014 Ebola epidemic, however can be accused of gross corruption and mismanagement.
In March 2020, he pushed by way of a referendum that allowed him to hunt two extra phrases, claiming it reset his restrict. The transfer led to widespread protests throughout the nation that turned violent because the police and military tried to close them down, resulting in dozens of deaths. The elections in October 2020 have been held amid the turmoil, and a minimum of 30 individuals have been killed through the polls. In September 2021, Conde was deposed and arrested by a gaggle of troopers led by Doumbouya, whom he had appointed in 2018 as head of the elite Particular Forces Group. He’s believed to be in exile in Turkiye. Conde’s Rally of the Guinean Folks (RPG) was one of many events suspended in August as a result of it had “not fulfilled the obligations required,” based on the authorities.
Sidya Toure, 80
The previous prime minister (1996-1999) is one other well-known opposition determine who has been sidelined. He got here third within the historic 2010 elections with 13 % of the vote. Toure is the chief of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR). He has lived in exile within the Ivory Coast for a number of years and was disqualified from the elections primarily based on his international residency.
Who’s working?
Normal Mamadou Doumbouya, 41
The incumbent is the clear favorite to win the elections and is accused by opposition events and activists of utilizing the vote as an influence seize to safe and legitimise his rule.
Doumbouya took energy within the September 2021 coup, deposing then-president Alpha Conde after months of rigidity and protests. He promised to finish the chaos and return the nation to democratic rule.
The regional ECOWAS bloc has pressured Doumbouya to current a quick transition timeline. The navy ruler initially promised an 18-month transition, however then remained largely uncompliant, lacking two deadlines. Nevertheless, ECOWAS, whereas maintaining stress, has not been overly important. Doumbouya has remained open to staying within the bloc, not like his compatriots in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, who, underneath stress to carry elections after their coups, rebuffed ECOWAS by leaving the alliance and creating a brand new union in January. ECOWAS is cautious of antagonising Doumbouya and presumably inflicting Guinea to affix the rival alliance.
Doumbouya’s authorities has, since 2022, banned protests, restricted native information organisations, and focused activists in arrests, based on native information studies and civil society teams. Every week earlier than the elections, authorities additionally blocked Fb.
Supporters of the navy ruler say he has boosted infrastructure, with greater than 2,250 kilometres of latest roads constructed, colleges renovated, and new hospitals constructed. In addition they level to the launch of the mega Simandou iron ore mine challenge, which noticed its first iron ore exports this 12 months, 30 years after it was licensed to function.
The challenge has attracted worldwide curiosity. Analysts say that’s partly why Western governments, with whom Doumbouya has maintained a pleasant stance whilst Conakry ramps up commerce with China, are cautious to not criticise his maintain on energy.
With marketing campaign posters of the smiling Doumbouya splashed throughout Conakry’s streets and within the metropolis of Kankan, his political stronghold, the president has promised to enhance the infrastructure good points up to now 4 years. He has additionally pledged to construct higher democratic establishments; battle corruption; increase well being and training entry; and help girls and youth. He’s working underneath the Technology for Modernity and Improvement, or GMD motion.
Others are:
- Aboulaye Yero Balde – a former training minister underneath Alpha Conde and ex-World Financial institution economist. Balde is working underneath the Entrance for Democracy in Guinea (FRONDEG).
- Makale Camara – the one feminine candidate and president of the Entrance for Nationwide Alliance (FAN) celebration. She has promised higher entry to water and electrical energy, and desires to diversify the economic system past mining. She was a former international minister from 2016 to 2017.
- Faya Millimono – the top of the Liberal Bloc celebration. He was important of Conde and initially supported the navy coup, however has since antagonised Doumbouya.
- Ibrahima Abe Sylla – the previous vitality minister underneath the navy authorities, is working underneath the New Technology for the Republic celebration. He beforehand ran in 2010 and 2020.
- Abdoulaye Kourouma – the 2020 presidential candidate and former parliamentarian, is working underneath the Rally for Renaissance and Improvement celebration.
- Mohamed Nabe – an electoral skilled who has shaped a part of regional electoral missions. He’ll run underneath the Alliance for Renewal and Progress celebration.
- Elhadj Bouna Keita – a former member of parliament, he leads the Rally for a Affluent Guinea (RPG).
- Mohamed Cherif Tounkara – is working as an impartial candidate.
What are the important thing points?
Mining and the economic system
Guinea stays a poor nation regardless of its immense mineral wealth. Literacy ranges are low and about half of the working inhabitants is unemployed, based on the Worldwide Labour Group.
A lot hope for change hinges on restructuring within the mining sector to unlock profitable offers for the nation. The Simandou mine, which Chinese language and Australian companies personal stakes in, is of explicit significance, as Doumbouya’s authorities is banking on it to offer sufficient cash to bankroll extra infrastructure and facilities. The primary cargo from the mines left for China early in December, after a newly constructed railway allowed for ore to be transported out of the distant Simandou highlands to the port of Conakry. Whereas many Guineans are hopeful concerning the proceeds, there are additionally fears that persistent authorities corruption might drain the income. Many are additionally involved concerning the destiny of the hundreds of building employees employed on the mine as soon as constructing initiatives are full.
Justice for September 28 stadium bloodbath
In 2009, former navy chief Moussa Dadis Camara, who seized energy in 2008, oversaw the bloodbath of protesters who gathered of their tens of hundreds at a stadium in Conakry to name for democratic rule. Camara’s forces opened hearth on the demonstrators in an try and suppress them. Many have been shot, whereas others have been crushed within the ensuing stampede. At the very least 156 individuals have been killed, and 109 girls and ladies have been raped through the bloodbath. It was one of many nation’s most tragic occasions.
Many Guineans have lengthy hoped for justice and a trial towards Camara, who fled to Burkina Faso after a coup and assassination try months later. Doumbouya’s authorities launched a 22-month-long trial towards him, and a courtroom convicted Camara and 7 of his navy commanders in July 2024. Rights teams hailed the decision as a historic second for justice. Camara was handed a 20-year sentence, and he and the others have been ordered to pay compensation to the victims of the bloodbath. Nevertheless, this March, only a 12 months later, Doumbouya pardoned Camara on alleged well being grounds – to the frustration of victims and rights campaigners.
Though the federal government has taken on the duty of compensation, with a primary section of reparations underneath method, there’s a lingering feeling amongst many victims that justice has not been absolutely served.
