February 28, 2026, will likely be remembered because the day the legislation of the jungle returned. On that fateful day, the US and Israel, in flagrant violation of worldwide legislation and the United Nations Constitution, launched Operation Epic Fury, “raining demise and destruction” on Iran.
Though it was not the primary time that the US and its Israeli ally had used negotiations to lull an enemy right into a false sense of safety earlier than attacking, the US-Israeli assault nonetheless caught Iran off guard. A number of high-ranking Iranian officers had been killed within the strikes, together with Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei. But the assaults failed to attain the regime change the US and Israel had anticipated. The Iranian authorities, bruised and bloodied however undefeated, endured.
In response, Iran attacked US army installations and diplomatic missions within the Center East and Israel with drones and missiles. Whereas the retaliation inflicted some injury, it fell in need of deterring additional assaults within the face of the opposite aspect’s overwhelming army superiority. Quite the opposite, US strikes intensified, culminating within the largest but on March 10. With Iranian missile stockpiles and launchers falling dangerously low, it has turn out to be obvious that with out outdoors intervention, Iran is preventing what may very well be its final stand.
China’s muted response
With Russia preoccupied with its personal battle, Iran waited to see whether or not its solely different ally able to going toe to toe with the US, China, would come to its assist. The reply got here rapidly. Two days into the battle, throughout an everyday information convention on the Chinese language Ministry of International Affairs, enterprise continued as regular, as if the US and Israel had not simply attacked one among China’s complete strategic companions. When it turned clear that China would stay silent, an Iranian journalist protested. Solely then did the ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, reluctantly condemn the US-Israeli assault.
Within the days that adopted, China turned a vocal critic of the assaults. Chinese language International Minister Wang Yi argued, “May doesn’t make proper,” warning that the assaults proved that “the world has regressed to the legislation of the jungle.” But for all his sturdy phrases, Wang stopped in need of explicitly naming the US or Israel because the aggressor, even when there was little doubt which international locations he meant. Moreover, China provided Iran little substantive help past rhetoric.
Whereas China contacted a number of Center Japanese international locations and despatched a particular envoy on a diplomatic tour of the area, a transfer that helped stop Iran’s neighbours, many caught within the crossfire, from becoming a member of the fray, it made no try and straight confront the US, the nation in the end answerable for the battle, not to mention ship Iran army assist.
China’s response remained muted even when Iran, in a bid to impress worldwide intervention, closed the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime hall by means of which 40 % of China’s imported oil passes every day. Confronted with a direct risk to its financial lifeline, Beijing’s solely response was to name for all events to stop hostilities and return to the negotiating desk. Its priorities had been clear.
That precedence, after all, is Taiwan.
Iran is just not as vital
One month earlier than the US-Israeli assaults, throughout the largest US army build-up within the Center East since its 2003 invasion of Iraq, Chinese language President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump held a telephone name. Within the US readout, the dialog lined a spread of matters, together with rising US-Iranian tensions.
Within the Chinese language model, nonetheless, the main focus was on China-US relations and Taiwan whereas rising US-Iranian tensions had been omitted. Xi reiterated that Taiwan is an inalienable a part of China, pressured its significance to China and China-US relations, and drew a purple line at its independence. Xi additionally warned Trump that the US should proceed with utmost warning concerning deliberate arms gross sales to Taiwan.
In response, in keeping with Beijing, Trump said that he attaches nice significance to China’s considerations concerning Taiwan and promised to uphold sound and steady China-US relations.
Silence on Iran on China’s half speaks volumes. It reinforces the concept, regardless of Iran’s membership in Chinese language-led initiatives, together with the Belt and Highway Initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS, it’s not as vital to China as beforehand assumed. Crucially, it suggests {that a} deal securing China’s core pursuits has been struck and Beijing was unwilling to jeopardise these positive factors for a distant ally.
Certainly, dealing with home setbacks and desirous to safe a commerce cope with China, the US’s third-largest buying and selling companion, to spice up his approval scores, Trump conceded to Xi’s requests within the days after their name and delayed a multibillion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan. As Trump plans to go to China quickly, straight confronting the US now would danger plunging China-US relations again into icy waters, an end result China has lengthy sought to keep away from, whereas sending Iran weapons may immediate the US to reciprocate in sort concerning Taiwan.
The battle doesn’t pose a risk to China
Though the US declared in its 2025 Nationwide Safety Technique that it now not views China as an adversary and has stepped again from its function because the world’s policeman, retreating to the Western Hemisphere consistent with the “Donroe Doctrine”, Beijing harbours no phantasm that the rivalry has ended or that Washington will go quietly. Consequently, China believes that so long as it poses a risk to Taiwan, a US ally and what Beijing considers a renegade province, the US will prioritise containing its rise over being drawn into one other Center Japanese quagmire.
Therefore, regardless of Trump’s insistence that every one choices stay on the desk, the US is unlikely to completely decide to a battle with Iran. The battle will possible stay confined to air strikes with out placing boots on the bottom. Provided that earlier US efforts to induce regime change have succeeded solely when supported by US or allied floor troops, as seen in Iraq and Libya, the absence of each infers that whereas the US might considerably weaken Iran, toppling its authorities stays unlikely.
Whereas Trump nonetheless lacks a sensible endgame, what’s changing into more and more clear is that, amid mounting strain from US allies and rising home dissatisfaction over rising oil costs, the battle will possible finish quickly with Trump himself signalling that he’s trying to find an off-ramp.
As such, the battle is unlikely to pose an existential risk to China’s financial system. Even when the battle continues, so long as it stays beneath 4 months, China is effectively positioned to climate the shock of rising oil costs, cushioned by the huge oil stockpile it had amassed in anticipation of such contingencies.
Even when the US had been to topple the Iranian authorities, China’s place because the world’s largest importer of oil and gasoline implies that any new pro-US authorities would search to take care of cordial relations with Beijing. In spite of everything, any Iranian authorities would stay closely depending on oil and gasoline income.
On this sense, Iran would come to resemble many different international locations, economically reliant on China and militarily depending on the US. Some Chinese language students even counsel that lifting US sanctions may paradoxically result in elevated Chinese language funding in Iran as traders would now not should concern US extraterritorial jurisdiction.
Ought to China stay idle whereas that occurs, nonetheless, it is not going to solely erode its standing as an incredible energy but additionally expose an uncomfortable reality. Whereas Beijing might publicly denounce the concept “would possibly makes proper,” its determination to depart a companion to fend for itself when its personal core pursuits are at stake suggests one thing extra enduring: May nonetheless units the boundaries of precept.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
