China is calling it a win. What’s in it for them?

A much-awaited deal over TikTok could also be shut, with US President Donald Trump and his Chinese language counterpart Xi Jinping set to debate phrases on Friday.

Prime officers from each side struck a “framework” settlement this week, which reviews recommend might see TikTok’s US operations offered to a gaggle of American companies.

If the deal goes via, it could be what one knowledgeable referred to as a “uncommon breakthrough” in US-China commerce negotiations – and one which settles a problem that has made headlines for years.

Consultants have been telling the BBC what a closing deal would possibly appear like for TikTok’s 170 million US customers, and what Beijing would possibly get in return.

Chinese language state media is looking it a “win-win” for each international locations, whereas Trump has mentioned “I might love to do it for the children”.

However lots about “it” nonetheless stays unclear.

Studies recommend that American customers can be supplied a brand new US-specific model of the app. And that the US operations may very well be purchased by a consortium that features expertise large Oracle, and funding companies Andreessen Horowitz and Silver Lake. The BBC has contacted the businesses for remark.

However what precisely is on the desk? On the coronary heart of the tussle is TikTok’s algorithm – the “secret sauce” that recommends content material to customers primarily based on their preferences and behaviours.

It is key as a result of it drives the app’s virality and attraction. Different corporations have tried to re-create the algorithm – Instagram has Reels, YouTube has Shorts – however they don’t seem to be pretty much as good, a former social media government who labored for Snap and Viber instructed the BBC, talking on the situation of anonymity.

“Typically, the one who introduces the expertise simply is aware of learn how to do it higher.”

TikTok’s Chinese language proprietor, Bytedance, understandably refused to half with the prized system, and Beijing backed the agency.

However in a twist few noticed coming, China’s prime cybersecurity regulator has signalled that Beijing might enable ByteDance to license the algorithm and different mental property (IP) to a US firm proprietor. Nevertheless it is not going to be transferred outright.

It is a main departure from China’s earlier hardline stance over the algorithm.

However there’s each likelihood the US model will run on a “stripped-down” model of the app’s software program, mentioned computing knowledgeable Kokil Jaidka from the Nationwide College of Singapore.

Even restricted entry might reveal how the expertise drives engagement, moderation and advert focusing on – all of the issues that make the app so worthwhile, she provides.

“It merely does not make enterprise sense for ByteDance at hand over its Most worthy asset when a lighter model can maintain the app working with out making a gift of its edge.”

However these adjustments will have an effect on the consumer expertise – the app might present much less various content material than customers would possibly see elsewhere, Dr Jaidka provides.

“A lighter, slower, extra home model – whereas ByteDance retains the crown jewels in Beijing.”

The consumer expertise will stay the identical, and with “Chinese language traits”, in response to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who’s main his aspect’s negotiating crew.

The “Chinese language traits” might be the issue although – that’s, in truth, a phrase usually utilized by the Chinese language Communist Social gathering to distinguish its manner of doing issues.

US officers, together with Trump throughout his first time period, have lengthy raised considerations about who has entry to TikTok’s knowledge, and the affect the app has over US customers.

These questions over nationwide safety spurred laws that former president Joe Biden signed into regulation final yr, requiring TikTok at hand over management of its US operations or face a ban.

Trump has since modified his thoughts, crediting TikTok for reinforcing younger voter assist in his 2024 election win.

However a sale should nonetheless fulfill US lawmakers and allay the troubles that kickstarted the whole lot. Congress is prone to must approve any settlement, and there’s already political backlash in Washington on each side of the aisle.

Republican lawmaker John Moolenaar has mentioned he’s involved that the agreed framework might nonetheless enable Chinese language authorities affect and management.

“Put merely: the statute requires full separation from ‘overseas adversary’ management, and a license wouldn’t seem to fulfill that take a look at,” lawyer Hdeel Abdelhady instructed the BBC.

Offers of this dimension usually take months and even years to finish, and there are a selection of points to resolve.

For one, it isn’t clear how US-owned and operated TikTok would work together with TikTok elsewhere, which might be nonetheless be owned by ByteDance.

And two, ByteDance, being a non-public firm, would want approval from its board for the association to proceed.

That provides a layer of complication even when the Chinese language authorities – which enforces export controls on superior applied sciences like algorithms – has already authorised the deal.

And the US president himself, who has confirmed to be an unpredictable commerce accomplice, might create recent problems.

We all know Trump is eager on a TikTok deal, and we all know why.

It could be an enormous win for his administration. One in seven folks on this planet use the app, which additionally doubles up as an enormous market for patrons and sellers internationally, from the US to Germany, Indonesia to the Philippines.

“That is the one social media app that did not originate within the US and so it is very beneficial,” the previous social media government mentioned.

The common income per consumer for many social media apps within the US is 5 to 10 instances increased than different international locations, with America probably making up one thing near 50% of ByteDance’s general income, he added.

Tech information web site The Info estimated ByteDance’s world income to be $39bn (£28.6bn) in 2024, with TikTok accounting for $30bn.

What we do not know but is how China would acquire from such a deal.

The licensing deal will enable ByteDance to maintain its algorithm underneath wraps – a strategic benefit if the US ever intends to launch new apps to compete with these already working within the nation, mentioned pc scientist Ben Leong.

And reasonably than be banned, TikTok will get to remain within the US market. TikTok’s father or mother would additionally retain the one greatest stake within the app, together with the brand, format and branding.

The deal additionally creates a “TikTok Template” for different Chinese language corporations to deploy their expertise within the US via licensing, investor and tech knowledgeable Kevin Xu wrote in his latest publication.

He added that ready-to-go Chinese language applied sciences that matter to nationwide competitiveness, like batteries and uncommon earths, might now stream to the US extra simply.

“That is the system that can probably be utilized ought to, say, BYD wish to make a bounce into the US market, or CATL wish to step up its growth to produce extra US carmakers with its batteries.”

China can spin the deal as a win – it’s exporting Chinese language-made tech by itself phrases. And that is likely to be essential leverage for Beijing in commerce negotiations with Washington.

“The Chinese language aspect have referred to as the talks in depth, constructive and candid. That alerts that they’re really fairly pleased with how issues are going,” mentioned former World Financial institution Nation Director for China Bert Hofman. “Query is when will there be a full deal?”

A TikTok deal might purchase them time for precisely that. The US is a large export marketplace for China, and China is a significant purchaser of American agricultural items. Excessive tariffs would harm each. There are additionally export controls on each side, particularly limiting US entry to uncommon earths, which China has a close to monopoly over.

Finally, it appears a breakthrough on TikTok is progress for China. The US might get a deal, however maybe not the coup Trump had in thoughts.

“The deal would possibly work on paper – however in follow, it’ll at all times sit underneath a cloud,” Dr Jaidka mentioned.

“A US TikTok will appear like the identical app, however behind the scenes it’ll run on borrowed code, firewalled knowledge, and political belief that might vanish in a single day.”