On safety, China might take an “simpler” angle in the direction of the Taiwan difficulty, as a result of if the US reaffirms its one-China coverage, it’ll assist scale back Beijing’s issues over the problem of Taiwan independence, Wu mentioned.
China views Taiwan as its territory and has stepped up army and political strain over the previous few years. It has repeatedly warned that it views any help for Taiwan independence as a crimson line.
“I feel it’s type of much like what we see previously. The one distinction is that this time, China can ship extra financial items to the US due to China’s rising financial and monetary energy,” Wu mentioned.
HOW WOULD US ALLIES REACT?
When questioned on how US allies would possibly react to a US-China grand cut price, Wu was of the view that they might welcome it.
On one hand, it sends out a message that the US below Trump is making an attempt to cut back its army presence and safety dedication to the area whereas urging its allies to spend extra on their militaries, he mentioned.
“This has been resisted by South Korea, Japan and Australia. As a result of they must make their very own choices about what constructive GDP (gross home product) they need to spend on the army, they do not simply wish to comply with Trump’s numerical directions,” he mentioned.
Underneath Trump, the US has been urgent its allies to extend defence budgets, typically criticising them for relying too closely on America’s safety umbrella.
Alternatively, Wu believes a profitable Sino-US grand cut price will create extra conducive situations for America’s allies to have interaction economically with China.
He identified that within the case of Japan, South Korea and Australia, China is already their prime buying and selling accomplice.
The regional panorama within the wake of a grand cut price might primarily be much like the way it was after the Chilly Struggle, when most international locations decreased their army spending and concentrated extra on financial progress, Wu prompt.
“A lot of the US allies would welcome a grand cut price between China and the US … (they) might fear extra about Trump’s “inward-looking” strategic posture slightly than a Sino-US grand cut price,” he mentioned.
Wu was additionally requested if there was a state of affairs the place China may lean in the direction of forging alliances slightly than sticking to its conventional partnership mannequin, notably within the context of safety.
Amid mounting “strategic strain” by Washington, there has really been debate in China on whether or not this coverage must be adjusted, whether or not it ought to ally with Russia or Iran or another international locations on this area,” Wu shared.
