Tuesday’s air strikes on an airbase in northwest Syria have been blamed on Israel, and, in response to analysts, they’re a message not simply to the federal government in Damascus, but in addition to its ally, Turkiye.
Whereas Israel has but to formally declare the assaults, Syria, the US and Jordan have all mentioned the assault on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib was the newest Israeli strike on its neighbour.
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“Bombing an airbase means the Israeli military doesn’t need the brand new Syria to have any kind of air drive within the coming years,” Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar on the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Center East Heart, instructed Al Jazeera.
Israel’s message to Damascus
On December 8, 2024, Syrian insurgent forces took Damascus, overthrowing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Within the subsequent hours, Israel’s air drive attacked Syrian military bases and infrastructure, in strikes which might be believed to have knocked out a lot of the brand new Syrian authorities’s air defence.
Within the hours after al-Assad’s fall, Israel additionally seized areas within the Syrian Golan Heights and illegally occupied the strategic level of Jabal al-Sheikh. Since then, Israel has arrange checkpoints on Syrian territory, the place it has harassed and at instances kidnapped Syrian residents.
In March 2025, Israel struck two Syrian airbases – T4 in Homs and the Palmyra airbase – that the Reuters information company had reported had beforehand been visited by Turkish army delegations. After which, in July of the identical 12 months, Israel bombed Syria’s Ministry of Defence within the coronary heart of Damascus.
Israeli officers have repeatedly acknowledged that they see Syria’s new authorities as a risk, despite the fact that it has grown nearer to the West – together with the US. Israel’s authorities beneath Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has additionally repeatedly warned Syria to not transfer troops south of Damascus – nearer to the Israeli border – regardless of the brand new administration stating on a number of events that it doesn’t search a confrontation with Israel.
“Syria has not been a risk to Israel, and there have been months of negotiations on a safety deal between the 2 neighbours,” Asli Aydintasbas, an affiliate senior coverage fellow on the European Council on International Relations, instructed Al Jazeera. “Because the downfall of the al-Assad regime, Syrians have made it very clear that they’re fascinated about peaceable relations with Israel, and that ought to matter.”
There have been no reported accidents in Tuesday’s assaults. Worldwide Disaster Group’s senior analyst for Syria, Nanar Hawach, mentioned solely airstrips and storage services have been broken, however that no jets have been destroyed.
Many analysts mentioned the Israelis have been making an attempt to ship a message that Syria shouldn’t rebuild its air drive, which it has taken steps to do – equivalent to repairing services and plane and coaching new personnel.
“The Israelis usually are not blissful concerning the Syrians having a functioning air drive,” Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, instructed Al Jazeera. He mentioned, nevertheless, that the remaining jets within the Syrian air drive’s armoury posed little risk to the Israelis.
Turkiye’s position
Analysts additionally mentioned the Israeli strike was doubtless a message directed at Turkiye.
Turkiye was a backer of some anti-Assad insurgent teams all through the struggle, and continues to have a army presence in northern Syria.
“Abu al-Duhur is near Idlib and nicely inside the Turkish sphere of affect,” Akil mentioned.
Israel has beforehand expressed concern and opposition to Turkish affect in Syria. Netanyahu has reportedly held safety consultations over Ankara’s position in Syria and has talked up the risk from Turkiye, NATO’s second-largest military after the US.
Naftali Bennett, the previous Israeli prime minister who can be within the working to switch Netanyahu when Israel goes to the polls in October, has additionally referred to as Turkiye “the brand new Iran”.
Navvar Saban, a researcher in safety and army affairs on the Arab Heart for Modern Syrian Research, in contrast the Abu al-Duhur assault to Israel’s March 2025 airbase assaults.
Reuters reported that Turkish army groups had visited these airbases previous to the March assaults, though neither the Syrian nor Turkish governments confirmed the report.
“The strike was most likely much less about destroying a right away Syrian army risk and extra about stopping the creation of a future army functionality,” Saban mentioned. “Israel seemed to be drawing a crimson line round attainable reconstruction of Syrian army infrastructure, significantly the place Turkish help might enhance Syrian air functionality or prohibit the Israeli freedom of operation over Syria’s airspace.”
