United States President Donald Trump introduced on Monday that he’s pausing attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure for 5 days and claimed that Washington and Tehran had held “excellent and productive conversations” aimed toward ending their war.
The identical day, Trump advised reporters that his envoys have been speaking to a senior Iranian official.
Whereas Trump didn’t title the official, a number of information shops in Israel and the US have reported that particular envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, are speaking to the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Each the Iranian authorities and Ghalibaf have denied that talks between Washington and Tehran are going down. And within the Iranian system, any negotiations with the US would should be authorized by new Supreme Chief Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council for them to have any legitimacy.
Who’s Ghalibaf, and what will we find out about these supposed negotiations?
What do we all know in regards to the talks Trump claims to be having?
On Saturday, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the essential delivery route by way of the Strait of Hormuz or danger US assaults on its energy vegetation. In response, Iran stated it will assault power and water services in Israel and the Gulf. Ghalibaf additionally threatened corporations that maintain US Treasury bonds.
Then on Monday, Trump wrote in a Reality Social put up that Washington and Tehran had held “excellent and productive conversations relating to an entire and whole decision of our hostilities within the Center East”. He ordered US forces to carry fireplace in opposition to Iranian energy vegetation for 5 days.
Iran’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs has rejected Trump’s claims that negotiations have been below manner. Iranian officers accused Trump of pausing his threatened assaults solely in an try and calm power markets.
Information shops reported on Monday that Trump stated his envoys have been in touch with a senior Iranian official.
“We’re coping with a person that I consider is essentially the most revered – not the supreme chief. We now have not heard from him,” Trump stated advised reporters on Monday.
Trump stated he didn’t need to title the Iranian chief as a result of he didn’t need to get him killed, however, the US information web sites Axios and Politico and a number of Israeli publications have reported that Witkoff and Kushner had been in contact with Ghalibaf.
Nevertheless, on Monday, Ghalibaf wrote in an X put up: “No negotiations have been held with the US, and faux information is used to control the monetary and oil markets and escape the quagmire by which the US and Israel are trapped.”
Who’s Ghalibaf?
Ghalibaf, 64, is Iran’s parliamentary speaker.
He served because the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air drive from 1997 to 2000. After this, he served because the nation’s police chief. From 2005 to 2017, he was the mayor of Tehran.
Ghalibaf stood in elections for president in 2005, 2013, 2017 and 2024. He withdrew his bid for president earlier than the election in 2017.
In Might 2020, Ghalibaf turned the parliamentary speaker, changing Ali Larijani, who had been speaker from 2008. Larijani was a detailed adviser to former Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the primary day of the US-Israeli battle on February 28. Larijani, Iran’s prime safety official, was additionally killed on March 17 in an Israeli strike.
What has Ghalibaf stated through the battle?
In his posts on-line, Ghalibaf has been among the many fiercest critics of the US and Israel and has repeatedly issued threats to Israel, the US and the Gulf. These threats have typically echoed the IRGC’s warnings – however at instances have gone even past what the army itself has threatened to do.
On March 14, he mocked Trump for claiming that the US had defeated Iran. Three days later, he declared that the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t return to its pre-war state. On Sunday, Ghalibaf posted that monetary our bodies that fund Washington’s army are reputable targets for Iran: “US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Buy them, and you buy a strike in your HQ and property.”
And on Monday, Ghalibaf posted a thread of posts on X, denying that talks with the US have been going down.
“Iranian folks demand full and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” he wrote. “All Iranian officers stand firmly behind their supreme chief and other people till this objective is achieved.”
What’s the chance of any talks proper now?
Specialists assume negotiations are believable as stress is constructing on Trump to finish the battle however are cautious about any predictions over whether or not they may succeed.
“I’d assess the chance of talks at 60 p.c for a number of causes,” Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi advised Al Jazeera.
Habibi defined that the prices of the battle have been excessive for all events. Trump faces stress to comprise the battle and forestall assaults on power infrastructure. He faces stress from Gulf international locations and main financial companions, resembling European international locations, Japan and South Korea, who’ve been harmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He additionally faces mounting considerations amongst his fellow Republicans anxious in regards to the rising price of gas impacting the celebration’s probabilities within the midterm elections scheduled for November.
He added that Iran faces stress as effectively. “Iran’s surviving management is below appreciable stress and is anxious about assaults to key power and energy plant infrastructure.”
Habibi added that a number of mediating international locations, resembling Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye, have been in a position to set up a communication channel with Iranian officers. This paves the way in which for negotiations.
Moreover, China can also be utilizing its affect to get Iran to barter, Habibi stated.
“Israel and the USA have been anticipating a brief battle with a path to regime collapse. Now they’re revising their expectations and are conscious of the excessive price of a chronic battle by which Iran is ready to hit targets in Israel.”
What’s subsequent?
“It’s exhausting to foretell whether or not any talks that happen within the subsequent few days can be profitable,” Habibi stated.
He added that there could be a discount in violence and a few confidence-building measures on each side through the negotiations however there is no such thing as a assure of a complete deal that might finish the battle.
“There could be disagreement between Israel and the US on necessities for ending the battle. Equally, some factions amongst Iran’s ruling elite may resist the concessions that Iran is anticipated to supply to fulfill the calls for of the USA,” Habibi stated.
