On December 16, Sudanese political events, armed actions, civil society organisations, and outstanding political figures signed a nine-point political roadmap in Nairobi, presenting it as a civilian-led initiative geared toward ending Sudan’s battle and restoring a democratic transition.
Framed as an antiwar, pro-peace platform, it seeks to place civilians as a “third pole” towards the 2 army actors in Sudan’s battle: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Speedy Help Forces (RSF).
Its authors say it represents an try to reclaim political company for civilians after months of marginalisation by armed actors and overseas mediators, despite the fact that the declaration doesn’t define any concrete steps in the direction of army reform.
The roadmap reignited longstanding debates inside Sudanese political and civic circles about illustration, legitimacy, and the persistent dominance of elite-driven civilian politics.
The roadmap
The Nairobi declaration emerged after an announcement launched by the Quad – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the USA – in September.
The Quad assertion known as for a direct three-month truce to result in a everlasting ceasefire, humanitarian entry to assist civilians, and the creation of a political course of for a civilian transition.
It additionally emphasised excluding remnants of former President Omar al-Bashir’s regime and reforming Sudan’s safety forces below civilian oversight, all factors that the Nairobi declaration echoed.
The Nairobi signatories included the Nationwide Umma Celebration, the Sudanese Congress Celebration, civil society organisations – together with the Darfur Attorneys Affiliation and the Coordination of Internally Displaced Individuals and Refugees – and the Sudan Liberation Motion (SLM-AW) led by Abdelwahid al-Nur.
Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who led Sudan’s transitional civilian authorities from al-Bashir’s overthrow in 2019 till the October 2021 army coup by the SAF and the RSF working in live performance, additionally signed the declaration.
It was likewise endorsed by al-Nur, longtime chief of the SLM-AW armed group that controls Jebel Marra in Darfur and has traditionally rejected what he describes as “elite-driven” political settlements.
Falling quick
Sudanese researcher Hamid Khalafallah advised Al Jazeera that regardless of the intent to current a civilian management, the declaration falls in need of reflecting Sudan’s broader civic motion.
The Nairobi coalition, he argued, mirrors earlier civilian formations that failed to attach with Sudanese residents, notably these most affected by the battle.
“It’s in some ways a copy of former teams which have … struggled to symbolize the Sudanese folks,” he stated. “It’s nonetheless very a lot an elite group that does politics in the identical means they all the time have.”
Though resistance committees – neighbourhood teams that emerged from Sudan’s protest motion and helped topple al-Bashir in 2019 – had been referenced within the declaration, no committees formally endorsed or signed it.
Drafts had been reportedly shared with some grassroots teams, however the course of superior with out ready for collective deliberation – reinforcing considerations that civilians on the bottom stay politically instrumentalised moderately than empowered.
Whereas al-Nur’s participation was hailed by some as a breakthrough, Khalafallah questioned the underlying motivation, arguing that his inclusion was supposed to counterbalance rival military-aligned forces moderately than rework civilian politics.
Earlier than the Nairobi declaration, there have been three primary civilian coalitions in Sudan, every aligned with a warring celebration or accused of such an alliance.
Tasis is the coalition of political events and armed actions that was based in February 2025, earlier than forming the RSF’s parallel authorities in July 2025, whereas the Democratic Bloc is a grouping of events and armed teams aligned with the SAF.
Lastly comes Hamdok’s Sumoud, comprising political events and civil society organisations and accused by SAF of supporting the RSF.
Europe’s one-track civilian technique
European officers have distanced themselves from the Nairobi initiative.
A senior European Union diplomat, talking on situation of anonymity, advised Al Jazeera that Brussels doesn’t see the Nairobi roadmap as the inspiration for a unified civilian course of.
“We wish to see just one civilian course of, that’s why we’re serving to the African Union [AU],” the supply stated. “Every little thing else is a distraction, like this Nairobi one.”
In response to the EU official, the precedence isn’t multiplying civilian platforms however consolidating them below a single credible framework, led by the AU and broadly accepted by Sudanese society.
“Our intention is to create a reputable third pole – versus RSF and SAF,” the supply stated. “An inclusive one, supported by most Sudanese residents.”
The EU plans to construct a broad coalition that may take the lead after the Quad’s humanitarian truce and ceasefire proposals are accepted by the SAF and the RSF, together with reforms inserting safety forces below civilian-led oversight.
The EU’s language displays rising frustration amongst worldwide actors with Sudan’s fragmented civilian panorama, whereas insisting that abandoning it might legitimise army rule by default.
“After all, we aren’t naive that civilians will take over tomorrow,” the supply stated. “However we now have to face for our values.”
The EU official was blunt in assessing the conduct of Sudan’s combatants, rejecting narratives that body both facet as a governing authority.
“I might not name what RSF does in Darfur ‘governing’, SAF is a bit higher – however not a lot,” the supply stated.
“Take a look at the oil deal they did,” the official added. “Cash is vital; persons are not.”
They referred to the newest settlement between the SAF and the RSF – below South Sudanese mediation – that each would withdraw from the Heglig oil facility, with South Sudanese troops deployed to secure the refinery following SAF’s pullout and the RSF’s seize of the positioning.
Combatants as spoilers?
US-Africa coverage professional Cameron Hudson advised Al Jazeera that the Nairobi declaration seems to imitate the Quad’s current assertion, successfully presenting to the worldwide neighborhood a roadmap that aligns with pre-existing aims to achieve Quad assist.
“My sense is that the Nairobi declaration reverse engineers what the Quad has stated,” Hudson stated, suggesting that the initiative is designed extra to draw worldwide endorsement than to construct real home consensus.
Hudson warned that this strategy mishandles the sequencing of Sudan’s political transition, “prematurely” linking ceasefire efforts with reforms of the military or different political modifications, arguing that these ought to stay on separate tracks till violence subsides.
“If what the Quad desires is an unconditional ceasefire, then it must pursue that, not create alternatives to commerce a ceasefire for political assurances throughout a transition,” he stated.
“For that motive, it’s untimely to be speaking about reforming the military or different political reforms. These ought to stay in separate tracks for now.”
The strain is stark. The Quad and the European Union more and more state that neither the SAF nor the RSF ought to have a political future and that remnants of the Bashir regime have to be excluded totally.
But each armed forces stay indispensable to any cessation of hostilities, creating an unresolved contradiction on the coronary heart of worldwide technique.
