Should Europe wean itself off US tech?

Think about if US President Donald Trump may flip a swap and switch off Europe’s web.

It might sound far-fetched, loopy even. But it surely’s a situation that has been critically mentioned in tech business and coverage circles in latest months, as tensions with Washington have escalated, and considerations in regards to the EU’s reliance on American know-how have come to the fore.

On the root of those considerations is the very fact simply three US giants – Google, Microsoft and Amazon – provide 70% of Europe’s cloud-computing infrastructure, the scaffolding on which many on-line providers rely.

And a few query whether or not an unpredictable US chief would weaponize the scenario if relations critically deteriorated – for instance, by ordering these firms to show off their providers in Europe.

“Important knowledge would turn into inaccessible, web sites would go darkish, and important state providers like hospital IT programs could be thrown into chaos,” says Robin Berjon, a digital governance specialist who advises EU policymakers.

He believes that considerations over a so known as US “kill swap” needs to be taken critically. “It is laborious to say how a lot bother we might be in.”

Microsoft, Google and Amazon all say they provide “sovereign” cloud computing options that safeguard EU shoppers’ knowledge, and would stop such a situation ever occurring. The BBC has contacted the US Treasury division for remark.

In reality, there have all the time been considerations in regards to the lack of “digital sovereignty” in Europe, the place US corporations not solely dominate the cloud-computing market, but additionally {hardware}, satellite tv for pc web and now synthetic intelligence.

Even the area’s primary cell working programs – Apple and Android – and cost networks – Mastercard and Visa – are American.

These fears turned pressing in Could when it emerged that Karim Khan, the highest prosecutor on the Netherlands-based Worldwide Felony Court docket (ICC), had misplaced entry to his Microsoft Outlook electronic mail account after being sanctioned by the White Home.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for prime Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their roles within the Israel-Gaza struggle – one thing Mr Trump known as “illegitimate”.

Khan has since briefly stepped apart till a sexual misconduct probe in opposition to him is concluded.

Microsoft says that “at no level” did it stop or droop its providers to the ICC, though it was in contact with the ICC “throughout the process that resulted in the disconnection”.

Since then digital sovereignty has shot up the agenda in Brussels, whereas some public our bodies are already in search of options to US suppliers.

However is it reasonable to suppose they might wean themselves off US know-how?

Digital sovereignty is loosely outlined as the flexibility of a governing physique to regulate the information and know-how programs inside its borders.

One drawback confronted by these pursuing it’s the lack of comparable options.

Europe does have its personal suppliers, reminiscent of France’s OVHCloud, or Germany’s Germany’s T-Techniques or Delos, in cloud computing.

However they account for a fraction of the market, and haven’t got the identical scale or vary of capabilities, says Dario Maisto, a senior analyst masking digital sovereignty at world enterprise consultancy Forrester.

Equally, open-source options can be found for frequent software program packages like Workplace and Home windows, however whereas proponents say they’re extra clear and accessible, none is as complete or well-known.

However whereas shifting to sovereign options would not “occur in a single day”, it is a “delusion” to suppose it is not potential, says Mr Maisto.

He notes that the German state of Schleswig-Holstein is at present within the technique of phasing out Microsoft merchandise like Workplace 365 and Home windows in favour of open-source options reminiscent of LibreOffice and Linux. Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is piloting an identical scheme.

“We generally overvalue the function of proprietary software program in our organisations,” Mr Maisto says, mentioning that for key providers like phrase processing and electronic mail, open-source options work simply high-quality.

“The principle causes organisations do not use open supply are a lack of information and misplaced fears about cyber safety,” he provides.

“Our prediction is within the subsequent 5 to 10 years, there shall be an accelerated shift [to these solutions] due to this wake-up name.”

Benjamin Revcolevschi, boss of OVHCloud, tells the BBC that corporations like his are able to reply the sovereignty wants of private and non-private organisations in Europe.

“Solely European cloud suppliers, whose headquarters are within the EU and with European governance, are capable of provide immunity to non-European legal guidelines, to guard delicate and private knowledge,” he says.

However Microsoft, Amazon and Google say they already provide options that deal with considerations about digital sovereignty, options which retailer knowledge on severs within the shoppers’ nation or area, not within the US.

Google tells the BBC that it additionally companions with trusted native EU suppliers like T-Techniques, granting them management over the encryption of shopper knowledge, and giving prospects “a technical veto over their knowledge”. The German Military is one among its shoppers.

In the meantime, Microsoft president Brad Smith has promised the agency would take authorized motion within the “exceedingly unlikely” occasion the US authorities ordered it to droop providers, and that it will embrace a clause in European contracts to that impact.

“We’ll proceed to search for new methods to make sure the European Fee and our European prospects have the choices and assurances they should function with confidence,” a Microsoft spokesman informed the BBC.

Zach Meyers, from the Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) suppose tank, says it would make sense for Europe to develop its personal restricted sovereign cloud to guard vital authorities knowledge.

However he provides that it is unrealistic to attempt to “get Individuals out of the provision chain, or to make sure that there’s Europeans within the provide chain at every level”.

He factors to Gaia X – a scheme launched in 2020 to create a European-based different to massive, centralised cloud platforms, which has confronted vital criticism and delays.

“A number of these [tech] markets are winner takes all, so when you’re the primary mover it is actually laborious for anybody else to catch up.”

As an alternative, Mr Meyers thinks Europe ought to give attention to areas of know-how the place it would achieve an edge.

“It could possibly be the commercial use of AI, as a result of Europe already has a a lot greater, stronger industrial base than the US has,” he says. “Or the subsequent technology of chipmaking tools, as a result of one of many few areas the place Europe has foothold is in photolithography – the machines that make the actually top-end chips.”

So the place does the digital sovereignty agenda go from right here?

Some consider nothing will change except Europe brings in new laws that pressure regional organisations and governments to purchase native know-how. However in keeping with Mr Berjon, the EU has been dragging its toes.

“There’s undoubtedly political curiosity, nevertheless it’s a query of turning it right into a shared technique.”

Matthias Bauer, director on the European Centre for Worldwide Political Economic system, thinks the aim needs to be increase Europe’s know-how sector so it may compete with the US and China.

In a report on EU competitiveness in 2024, Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Financial institution, famous Europe is “severely lagging behind” in new applied sciences, and that “solely 4 of the world’s prime 50 tech firms are European”.

“It is at present a lot more durable for a tech firm based mostly within the EU to scale throughout the bloc than it will be for a similar firm within the US,” Mr Bauer says.

“You not solely face totally different languages, however totally different contract legislation, labour market legal guidelines, tax legal guidelines, and in addition totally different sector-specific regulation.”

As for the speculation that President Trump may flip a “kill swap” and switch off Europe’s web, he is extremely sceptical.

“It could be a sensible situation if we have been near a struggle, however I do not see that on the horizon.”

But Mr Maisto says organisations should take the chance critically, nevertheless distant.

“Two years in the past, we did not suppose we might be speaking about these subjects in these phrases in 2025. Now organisations need to prepare for what may occur.”