United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov for a second time in two days on Friday, with the struggle in Ukraine the point of interest of their huddle. That they had met for 50 minutes on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia on Thursday.
Whereas campaigning for re-election, US President Donald Trump had promised to finish the struggle in Ukraine inside 24 hours of taking workplace.
However greater than 4 months later, the prospects of a ceasefire seem as distant as ever, with Russia launching a fierce bombardment of Ukraine in current days.
After the Thursday assembly, Rubio informed reporters that Trump was “upset and pissed off that there’s not been extra flexibility on the Russian facet” to carry an finish to the war in Ukraine.
So has Trump’s view of the struggle modified – and what are his subsequent choices?
Has Trump’s place on Russia shifted?
Rubio’s feedback come at a time when Trump has more and more been publicly important of Putin, after beforehand accusing Ukraine of not wanting peace.
“We get numerous b******t thrown at us by Putin. He’s very good on a regular basis, nevertheless it seems to be meaningless,” Trump mentioned on Tuesday.
Since February, the US has held separate talks with Russia and Ukraine, and brokered direct talks between them in Might in Istanbul for the primary time because the early months of Russia’s full-fledged invasion in 2022.
However whereas Putin has provided transient pauses in preventing, he has not accepted the US proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine has accepted that proposal. Russia argues that Ukraine may use the truce to remobilise troops and rearm itself.
When requested by reporters this week whether or not he would act on his frustration with Putin, Trump responded: “I wouldn’t be telling you. Don’t we need to have just a little shock?”
Nonetheless, specialists warning in opposition to concluding that Trump was able to act robust in opposition to Russia.
“Western media is filled with commentary on what it calls Trump‘s ‘altering stance’ on Putin. However as but, there isn’t a cause to suppose that something has modified in any respect,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the London-based Chatham Home suppose tank, informed Al Jazeera.
“There’s a wave of optimism internationally that this may lastly result in a change in US coverage. However, on each earlier event, this has not occurred.”
Certainly, after the Thursday assembly between Rubio and Lavrov, either side recommended that they have been keen to proceed to have interaction diplomatically.
Arming Ukraine to combat off Russia
In early July, the Trump administration introduced a choice to “pause” arms provide to Kyiv. Every week later, he reversed this determination.
“We’re going to ship some extra weapons. We have now to. They’ve to have the ability to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very onerous now,” mentioned Trump on July 8.
On Thursday, Trump informed NBC that these weapons could be bought to NATO, which can pay totally for them. NATO will then cross them on to Ukraine.
“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for these weapons, one hundred percent,” Trump informed NBC, including that the US will probably be sending Patriot missiles to the alliance.
Trump mentioned this deal was agreed on throughout the NATO summit in The Hague in June.
Trump had additionally frozen assist to Ukraine in February, after a falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following a rancorous assembly within the White Home. Trump accused Zelenskyy of speaking the US into “spending $350 Billion {Dollars}, to enter a Battle that couldn’t be gained”.
Trump resumed the provides weeks later. Between January 2022 and April 2025, the US has offered Ukraine with about $134bn in assist, in accordance with the Kiel Institute for the World Financial system.
Trump’s MAGA [Make America Great Again] base has been important of the funding that the US offers Ukraine.
Following Trump’s announcement that the US will resume sending weapons to Ukraine, a number of conservative People have responded with disappointment.
“I didn’t vote for this,” wrote Derrick Evans on X on July 8. Evans was one in every of Trump’s supporters who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 and was arrested, to be pardoned by Trump in January this yr.
Conservative social media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge wrote on X on July 8: “Who within the hell is telling Trump that we have to ship extra weapons to Ukraine?”
Sanctioning Russia
When requested on July 8 about his curiosity in a Congress invoice proposing further sanctions on Russia, Trump responded, “I’m it very strongly.”
For the reason that struggle in Ukraine began in 2022, the US and its allies have imposed no less than 21,692 sanctions on Russian people, media organisations, and establishments throughout sectors such because the navy, vitality, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.
Nonetheless, whereas these sanctions have hit Russia’s financial system, it has not collapsed the best way some specialists had predicted it could within the early months of the struggle.
In current months, Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested his allies within the West to tighten sanctions on Russia, to place strain on Putin to finish the struggle.
Most lately, Zelenskyy posted on X on Friday following a Russian drone assault in Kharkiv: “Sanctions have to be strengthened. We predict the adoption of a brand new sanctions bundle. All the pieces that can put strain on Russia and cease it have to be applied as shortly as potential.”
A bipartisan Senate invoice sponsored by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham goals to levy tariffs on nations that import oil, gasoline and uranium from Russia.
In 2023, crude petroleum, petroleum gasoline and refined petroleum constituted practically 54 p.c of complete Russian exports, in accordance with the Observatory of Financial Complexity (OEC).
In response to the OEC, China and India purchase a bulk of Russia’s oil and gasoline merchandise.
In 2024, Russian oil accounted for 35 p.c of India’s complete crude imports and 19 p.c of China’s oil imports. Turkiye additionally imports Russian oil, with as a lot as 58 p.c of its refined petroleum imports sourced from Russia in 2023.
However the West has not weaned itself off Russia, both.
In 2024, European nations paid greater than $700m to purchase Russian uranium merchandise, in accordance with an evaluation by Brussels-based suppose tank Bruegel, based mostly on knowledge from the European Union’s statistical workplace, Eurostat.
In late March this yr, Trump expressed anger with Putin and threatened “secondary tariffs” on any nation that buys Russian oil if a ceasefire deal is just not reached, however these tariffs weren’t imposed.
“If a brand new sanctions invoice does cross, and the US does impose prices on Moscow for the primary time throughout the present administration, this is able to be a radical departure from Trump’s constant coverage,” Giles mentioned.
“It stays to be seen whether or not Trump will in actual fact enable this, or whether or not his deference to Putin will imply he continues to withstand any potential countermeasures in opposition to Moscow.”
Strolling away from the battle
On April 18, US Secretary of State Rubio mentioned his nation may “transfer on” from the Russia-Ukraine struggle if a ceasefire deal is just not brokered.
“We at the moment are reaching a degree the place we have to determine whether or not that is even potential or not,” Rubio informed reporters in Paris after talks between American, Ukrainian and European officers.
“As a result of if it’s not, then I believe we’re simply going to maneuver on. It’s not our struggle. We have now different priorities to concentrate on,” Rubio continued.
On the identical day, Trump echoed Rubio’s statements to reporters. Nonetheless, Trump didn’t say that he’s able to stroll away from peace negotiations.
“Nicely, I don’t need to say that, however we need to see it finish,” Trump mentioned.
Extra diplomacy
The second day of talks between Rubio and Lavrov, nonetheless, means that the US has not given up on diplomacy but.
Rubio informed reporters on Thursday that the US and Russia have exchanged new concepts for peace in Ukraine. “I believe it’s a brand new and a distinct strategy,” Rubio mentioned, with out providing any particulars of what the “new strategy” concerned.
“I wouldn’t characterise it as one thing that ensures a peace, nevertheless it’s an idea that, , that I’ll take again to the president,” Rubio added.
Following Rubio and Lavrov’s assembly on Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs mentioned in a information launch that the US and Russia had “a substantive and frank change of views on the settlement in Ukraine” and can proceed constructive dialogue.
The assertion added: “[Russia and the US] have reaffirmed mutual dedication to looking for peaceable options to battle conditions and resuming Russian-US financial and humanitarian cooperation.”
