On the floor, it was a routine closed-door assembly between Bangladesh’s interim chief and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and the chiefs of the nation’s three armed forces, to debate legislation and order.
However the Might 20 assembly got here amid what a number of officers aware of the inner workings of the federal government described to Al Jazeera as an intensifying energy battle in Dhaka. Portrayed in each social and mainstream media in Bangladesh as a “chilly struggle” between the armed forces and the interim administration, these tensions now threaten the way forward for Yunus’s function, 9 months after he took cost following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League.
Hasina fled to India in August 2024 amid a mass uprising towards her 15-year-long rule, throughout which she was accused of orchestrating extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.
We unpack the newest tumult in Bangladesh, and what it means for the nation’s fledgling efforts to return to electoral democracy.
Why are tensions mounting between the navy and the federal government?
The Bangladesh Military has remained deployed since July 2024, following the mass protests that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Their continued presence was necessitated by the collapse of civilian legislation enforcement throughout the upheaval, together with a nationwide police strike that left many stations deserted and public order in disarray.
Though the police resumed operations in mid-August, the military’s presence has been maintained as a part of a civil-military consensus, due to unrest within the nation.
On Wednesday, Bangladesh’s military chief, Basic Waker-Uz-Zaman, publicly urged that nationwide elections be held by December this yr, warning that extended deployment of the military for civil duties may compromise the nation’s defences.
Based on a report by The Day by day Star, Basic Waker instructed a high-level gathering at Dhaka Cantonment, “Bangladesh wants political stability. That is solely attainable via an elected authorities, not by unelected decision-makers.” The feedback got here throughout a uncommon tackle during which he delivered a 30-minute speech, adopted by greater than an hour of questions and solutions. Officers from throughout the nation and at Bangladeshi UN missions reportedly joined the occasion, each bodily and nearly, in full fight uniform – a present of unity and resolve.
“The military is supposed for defending the nation, not for policing … We should return to barracks after elections,” Waker was quoted in The Day by day Star as saying.
His remarks point out a distinction of opinion with the Yunus administration’s said intention of holding elections no sooner than mid-2026, to permit time for political and electoral reforms first, so as to guarantee a good election.
Based on native media experiences, Waker can be strongly against key initiatives being thought-about by the interim authorities. On a proposed humanitarian hall into Myanmar’s Rakhine State, he reportedly mentioned: “There can be no hall. The sovereignty of Bangladesh is just not negotiable.” He warned that any such transfer may drag Bangladesh right into a harmful proxy battle. “Solely a political authorities elected by the folks could make such selections,” he mentioned, in response to the paper.
The military chief additionally voiced concern about making different selections with out an electoral mandate – together with the potential international administration of Chattogram Port, Bangladesh’s primary seaport, and the launch of Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite tv for pc web service – which he mentioned may compromise nationwide safety. “The military is not going to enable anybody to compromise our sovereignty,” The Day by day Star quoted him as saying.
His remarks got here amid widespread hypothesis – nonetheless unaddressed by both the navy or the federal government – that the Yunus administration had tried to take away Basic Waker from his publish final week. Although unconfirmed, the hearsay has dominated public discourse and prompted questions on civil-military relations throughout the transitional interval.
The timing, subsequently, of Basic Waker’s assertive public assertion – and its emphasis on constitutional course of and nationwide sovereignty – is extensively seen as a sign of rising unease throughout the navy over the interim authorities’s increasing civilian initiatives, in response to analysts.
Are there tensions with political events as nicely?
Sure. Since its formation on August 8 final yr, the interim authorities has confronted escalating stress from totally different sides. Whereas the primary opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP) insists that nationwide elections have to be held by December, the Nationwide Citizen Get together (NCP) – a student-led social gathering fashioned earlier this yr – and several other different political teams argue that sweeping reforms and the prosecution of former Awami League (AL) leaders for killings ensuing from the brutal crackdown on student-led protests final yr should precede any election.
Bangladesh’s largest political social gathering, the BNP, has launched a wave of protests over different calls for as nicely, together with that its candidate, who misplaced an allegedly rigged mayoral election in Dhaka on February 1, 2020, beneath the Awami League regime, be reinstated as mayor.
On Thursday, the BNP held a information convention demanding an election by the top of the yr, in addition to the resignation of two pupil advisers and the nationwide safety adviser. The social gathering warned that with out these steps, continued cooperation with the Yunus-led administration would turn out to be untenable.
On Saturday, Yunus is predicted to satisfy with each the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the biggest Islamic political social gathering in Bangladesh.
Is Yunus making ready to resign?
Amid this rising turbulence, hypothesis has intensified that Yunus could also be making ready to resign. Native media started reporting that he had indicated that he meant to step down and tackle the nation in a televised assertion, throughout a cupboard assembly on Thursday afternoon, following widespread social media chatter.
That night, Nahid Islam – a pupil chief from the July rebellion towards the earlier authorities and now head of the newly fashioned Nationwide Citizen Get together (NCP) – met Yunus together with two pupil advisers to make an enchantment for him to remain on.
After the assembly, Nahid confirmed to BBC Bangla that Yunus was significantly contemplating stepping down.
By Friday night (13:00 GMT), sources throughout the interim administration instructed Al Jazeera that Yunus was nonetheless weighing his choices.
Nonetheless, two authorities sources mentioned Yunus is more likely to convene an emergency cupboard assembly on Saturday, throughout which he’s anticipated to debate the following plan of action. One of many sources confirmed that Yunus’s resignation stays a chance.
Why may Yunus need to resign?
Yunus is considering resigning due to intensifying political stress, in response to native media experiences.
Two advisers quoted within the Samakal newspaper mentioned Yunus instructed cupboard members on Thursday that the political events and different authorities establishments had didn’t ship on guarantees to cooperate with the transitional authorities to implement state reforms and a peaceable democratic transition because the fall of Hasina’s authorities final yr.
It had turn out to be unattainable to hold out his duties, he was reported as saying. Stress can be mounting to carry an election. “The prospect of a good election within the present state of affairs is slim,” he mentioned. He was involved any election could be interfered with or rigged and he didn’t need to need to take accountability for it.
Afterward Thursday night, Yunus met Data Adviser Mahfuj Alam, Native Authorities Adviser Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain and NCP convenor Nahid Islam at his official residence, the Jamuna State Visitor Home in Dhaka.
Talking to BBC Bangla afterwards, Nahid confirmed Yunus was contemplating resigning and quoted him as saying he felt “held hostage” by protests and political gridlock.
“I can not work like this if you happen to, all of the political events, can not attain a typical floor,” Nahid quoted Yunus as saying. He urged the interim chief to “stay robust”, stressing the hopes the general public had pinned on him after the July rebellion that ousted the Awami League authorities.
In the meantime, Yunus’s bold reform agenda is reportedly faltering, with analysts noting that key arms of the state – together with the police and civil paperwork – are more and more slipping past the interim authorities’s management.
One placing instance amongst many, they are saying, is a proposal to separate the Nationwide Board of Income (NBR), the nation’s authority for tax administration, overseeing the gathering of earnings tax, value-added tax (VAT) and customs duties, into two separate entities – a transfer that the federal government says is geared toward enhancing effectivity and the integrity of Bangladesh’s tax system. This has been met with robust resistance from senior officers of the NBR over fears that skilled income officers can be sidelined.
What does the BNP need?
Talking to Al Jazeera, BNP chief Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury mentioned his social gathering doesn’t need Yunus to resign. “No one requested for his resignation, and we are not looking for him to take action,” he said.
“The persons are ready to solid their vote and produce again democracy. They’ve been disadvantaged of this for practically 20 years,” mentioned Khasru. “We count on him to go for a free and honest election and peacefully hand over energy. That’s how he got here in.”
He questioned the delay in setting an election timeline. “What’s the watch for? That is one thing [about which] a really robust dialog is occurring within the nation.”
Khasru mentioned the BNP desires the administration to maneuver into caretaker mode – with a leaner cupboard and the removing of some controversial figures, notably these with political ambitions or affiliations. “They’ve already floated a political social gathering,” he mentioned, referring to the coed representatives. “Others made partisan statements. These ought to go if you happen to’re critical a couple of credible election.”
He dismissed any contradiction between reforms and elections, saying each may transfer ahead concurrently. “The place there’s consensus, reforms may be accomplished inside weeks.”
Khasru additionally voiced confidence within the Election Fee and the function of the military in guaranteeing a good vote. “This isn’t the period of Sheikh Hasina,” he remarked, suggesting a extra conducive political surroundings for elections.
On the query of attempting former Awami League leaders, he mentioned judicial processes may proceed in parallel. “The judiciary should do its job – the elected authorities will proceed if extra is required.”
“BNP suffered probably the most beneath the earlier regime,” he added. “The trials are a nationwide consensus.”
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed echoed this sentiment in a TV interview on Friday: “If Yunus is personally unable to hold out his duties, the state will discover an alternate.” However he added: “As a globally revered determine, we hope he’ll perceive the state of affairs and announce an election roadmap by December.”
What do different political events need?
NCP’s Senior Joint Convenor Ariful Islam Adeeb rejected the BNP’s narrative, telling Al Jazeera: “All events had been meant to assist the interim authorities after the July rebellion, however the BNP caught to previous ways primarily based on muscle energy – that’s the basis of the disaster.”
He urged unity, saying: “BNP and all different events should come collectively for the nationwide curiosity.”
In the meantime, demonstrations and behind-the-scenes conferences continued throughout Dhaka. On Thursday night, prime leaders of 5 political events, together with the NCP, attended an emergency assembly on the headquarters of one other Islamic political social gathering, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), referred to as by its chief Mufti Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim.
They urged all “anti-fascist forces” to unite, defend nationwide sovereignty, and assist a reputable election beneath Yunus after key reforms. A number of of those events, together with BJI, argue that elections should come after key reforms – akin to adopting a proportional voting system and guaranteeing accountability for previous abuses – to stop any repeat of previous authoritarian practices. They imagine holding elections with out these adjustments would undermine public belief and threat one other disaster.
BJI chief Shafiqur Rahman joined the IAB assembly by way of telephone and endorsed the decision. On Thursday, he urged Yunus to convene an all-party dialogue to resolve the disaster.
Then, on Friday night time, BJI’s Shafiqur Rahman requested a gathering with Yunus, proposing to convene at 12:00 GMT (6pm native time) on Saturday.
Talking to Al Jazeera on Friday night time, NCP Joint Convenor Sarwar Tushar mentioned: “Regardless of the rumours, we imagine Dr Muhammad Yunus is dedicated to his historic accountability.
“There’s huge expectation – each from the worldwide neighborhood and the folks,” he added.
Whereas acknowledging political divisions, Tushar mentioned: “If everybody strikes past social gathering agendas and focuses on a nationwide agenda, the disaster may be resolved via dialogue.”
What can we count on subsequent?
Political analyst Rezaul Karim Rony instructed Al Jazeera that speak of Yunus’s resignation could mirror rising frustration over the shortage of unity throughout the transitional setup. “The unity that had fashioned across the post-uprising interim authorities seems to be weakening resulting from vested pursuits,” he mentioned. “The resignation speak is likely to be a sign underscoring the necessity to rebuild that unity.”
Rony recommended that sure authorities appointments could have alienated political events, elevating questions on whether or not some actors have agendas past the official reform mandate. “This may very well be one cause why the federal government is struggling to realize broad political cooperation and performance successfully,” he famous.
Rony added: “At this level, advocating for elections could [make the administration] seem politically aligned with the BNP. However ultimately, it ought to be as much as the folks to determine who they need to lead.”
NCP’s Nahid Islam, nonetheless, sees in any other case.
He warned in a Fb publish on Friday night time: “There’s a conspiracy to sabotage the democratic transition and stage one other 1/11-style association.”
The time period “1/11” refers to January 11, 2007, when the military-backed caretaker authorities took management in Bangladesh amid political chaos and dominated for 2 years, suspending democratic processes.
“Bangladesh has repeatedly been divided, nationwide unity destroyed, to maintain the nation weak,” Nahid wrote.
Urging Yunus to remain in workplace and ship on guarantees of reform, justice and voting rights, he mentioned, “Dr Yunus should resolve all political crises whereas in workplace.”
He additionally outlined NCP’s calls for: a well timed July declaration, elections throughout the introduced timeframe (Yunus has repeatedly promised that the election can be held between December 2025 to July 2026), a July Constitution with core reforms earlier than polls, seen justice for the July killings, and a roadmap for a brand new structure via simultaneous elections to a Constituent Meeting and legislature.
In the meantime, public nervousness is rising. On Friday, the Bangladesh Military issued a Fb alert debunking a faux media launch circulated a day earlier, which falsely used the navy’s brand in what it described as “an obvious try to sow confusion and create rifts” between the armed forces and the general public. “Don’t imagine rumours. Don’t be misled,” the assertion warned.
Because the weekend approaches, all eyes are on Muhammad Yunus – and whether or not he’ll resign, stand agency, or forge a brand new consensus to guide the nation via its second transition since final yr’s dramatic rebellion.
