QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, No person has a pc that covers every little thing. Your forecast on the WEC that the Democratic Social gathering would collapse is unprecedented. No person has even contemplated that such a factor may happed. But night time now that is unfolding. The new polls from NBC Information and CNN. The former poll showed that solely 27% of People held a optimistic view of the occasion, with solely 7% holding a “very optimistic” view. Each are report lows for the ballot. Then, the CNN results discovered the Democrats’ approval at 29%, setting the report low for that ballot as nicely.
Is there something you may say as to how Socrates can forecast what no one is able to even fascinated about?
Wm
ANSWER: My confrontation with the bankers who informed the CFTC to close us down after the forecast that Russia would collapse in 1998 was predicated on the belief that the forecasts work solely as a result of I’ve extra institutional shoppers than the NY crowd mixed. What they by no means thought of was that simply possibly I found one thing profound that the New Yorker referred to as the Secret Cycle.
What I found modified my life. There are two paths of analysis.
- (1) The Max Path: You begin with a idea and cherry-pick info to assert you’re proper
- (2) The Adam Smith Path: You observe to determine how one thing capabilities.
The complexity that exists is outstanding. However the precision of how and when occasions will happen can also be astonishing. All financial theories from Marx onward started with the identical assumption: that the enterprise cycle is random and that, due to this fact, the federal government, by way of its central banks, can manipulate it to create perpetual prosperity.
I had a pleasant dialogue with Paul Volcker, and he agreed. The enterprise cycle was about 8 years. Each Volcker and Burns concluded that the enterprise cycle all the time wins. All of the theories that attempt to manipulate society to get rid of the enterprise cycle are out of thoughts. What I ran into was not mere complexity however precision that I by no means anticipated to find.
That is Not the First Political Social gathering to Collapse
A big issue within the collapse of the Federal Social gathering was the anti-state view in favor of centralized federal energy. Moreover, there was the Warfare of 1812. For a very long time, the Federalist occasion supported peace with Britain and struggle with France, whereas the Democratic-Republican occasion had the precise reverse place. Finally, British conduct in the direction of the US throughout its struggle with France brought on anti-British and thus anti-Federalist sentiment. The Democrats have sought to exert energy in Washington and dictate coverage to the states on points comparable to abortion. They’ve additionally supported Ukraine and fostered the struggle in opposition to Russia, which was why the Neocons swung to the Democrats.
The Hartford Conference of 1814-1815 was important within the Federalist occasion’s collapse. This largely Federalist conference in New England steered some constitutional amendments. Nonetheless, it was alleged to think about New England’s secession from the Union and a separate peace with Britain, not in contrast to California. After the struggle, the conference was extensively considered as an act of treason and a black mark on the repute of the Federalist occasion.
What can also be ignored is that the Federalists had been basically a mercantilist occasion in comparison with the South, which was agrarian. Alexander Hamilton, together with most Federalists, was making an attempt to lift the standing of america internationally whereas nonetheless preventing the final struggle. Thus, the Federalists had been pro-industrialization, which was nonetheless in its infancy. They are saying that industrialization would make america a extra highly effective nation within the eyes of the worldwide neighborhood. Many wrongly assume that the Federalists had been a “conservative” occasion within the fashionable sense. Sure, Hamilton was pro-bank and pro-business.
Hamilton additionally established the Nationwide Debt to lift america’ credit score standing in worldwide eyes. Nevertheless, he was foremost a federalist, constructing america into a major energy. What’s ignored is that the Federalists had been the ancestors of not simply the Whigs but in addition FDR insofar as they noticed the federal authorities had a task in regulating, managing, and controlling society and the economic system.
Don’t neglect that throughout the Whiskey Rebel, a tax revolt in Pennsylvania, George Washington despatched troops to kill those that rebelled. That was the essence of the Federalists: dictatorial energy from a central command. The Federalists, like Roosevelt, believed in a optimistic function for the federal authorities. That’s the place the Democrats have occupied in the present day. Biden tried to rent 75,000 IRS brokers who can be armed.
Then got here the Warfare of 1812, disrupting manufacturing imports to america, which led even the Jeffersonian Republican Social gathering to chill out its insurance policies towards industrialization. The Federalists had supported Britain for enterprise. However many producers discovered the laissez-faire of the Republican Social gathering to be extra helpful than the Federalists, whose coverage was if it moved, tax it. If it stopped shifting, kick it. The Warfare of 1812 killed the Federalists, and extra industrialists moved to Jefferson.
As an alternative of the Warfare of 1812, when the British burned Washington, DC, and the Federalists had supported the British, in the present day we’ve the Neocon Proxy Warfare in Ukraine in opposition to Russia, and a few idiots on Capitol Hill wished to fee a marble bust of Zelensky to face within the US Capitol subsequent to Washington and Jefferson.
The Democratic Social gathering nonetheless refuses to confess that, simply maybe, their radical fringe proposing intercourse adjustments in jail for unlawful aliens simply might need gone too far. Producing comedian books on equality and handing them to the Taliban for $$20 million. In the true world, it’s a must to have a possible marketing strategy. In Washington, the crazier the thought, the extra money you get.
Listed here are the 2 laptop forecast arrays from 2018 and 2024. 2024 was a major goal in 2018, but the 2021 goal was the strongest with a Panic Cycle. That was Biden. That was all she wrote, of us, for the Democrats. They won’t exist by 2033.
This chart plots as a proportion of whole seats mixed within the Home and Senate. They peaked out earlier than slavery, and every rally produced a declining development. Sorry, however this can be a bear market. It will likely be time to prove the sunshine for the Democrats, and their wacky WOKE agenda is liked solely by the acute fringe. My father was a Melancholy Democrat. He would by no means have voted Democrat in the present day.
I’m beginning with a e book on the Financial Confidence Mannequin that I promised I’d do to go away for society. I’ll most likely print the primary version myself, for it will likely be nicely illustrated and formal publishers don’t like that as a result of it’s too costly to supply. The second version will be stripped of the illustrations they don’t need to print. However I are typically a perfectionist. It needs to be proper to place my identify on it. I don’t promote promoting right here as a result of I don’t need to seem to endorse any product.
